I had originally planned on doing something related to this back when I wrote up other awards, but the playoffs sort of took over. And then, a useful thing happened. MLB announced top 3 finalists at all positions, making the heavy lifting research a little bit easier.
There was a conversation on Twitter the other day, and I can't remember the exact participants, but it was brought up that Gold Gloves are a pretty overrated award because of some of the people who have won them (more on that in a minute). This is too bad, somebody said, because as a name, they're a pretty great concept. And somebody else mentioned that it would be a fun way to describe somebody like Adam Everett as a gold glove shortstop who never actually won a Gold Glove. Why are Gold Gloves overrated? The voting for Gold Gloves is done by managers and coaches in each league (who can't vote for players on their own team). As of a few years ago, 25% of the voting/ranking is based on SABR fielding metrics. The problem with coaches and managers voting was that a lot of guys got by on just reputation. For example (a now famous example for baseball fans), Raphael Palmeiro won the Gold Glove for 1st Base in 1999, as he had in 1997 and 1998. Not that controversial. Except for the minor detail that he had played 28 games at 1st Base in 1999, and 128 as a designated hitter. Derek Jeter also famously won 5 Gold Gloves at shortstop despite providing negative value on the field in most of those seasons. Moving on though, lets agree that they're a fun sounding award, but, like most awards, don't always mean much. American League first, then National League. I'll make a lot of reference to the Fielding Bible who does awards for each position, though does not split by leagues. They also add a utility player (Ender Inciarte of the Arizona Diamondbacks). My choice will be highlighted. Also, apologies as this is going to have a lot of stats in it. If that's not your thing, be warned. Feel free to Youtube some of these guys (especially Andrelton Simmons, Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Pillar, Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Brandon Crawford...) American League P - Mark Buehrle (Blue Jays), Sonny Gray (A's), Dallas Keuchel (Astros) According to the Fielding Bible, Dallas Keuchel had the second best total of defensive runs saved by a pitcher since they began measuring the statistic. He added 13 runs of value (remember, 10 runs is roughly 1 win) just with his glove. That makes this an easy choice. C - Jason Castro (Astros), Russell Martin (Blue Jays), Salvador Perez (Royals) I went to Fangraphs and StatCorner's catcher report for this one. I looked at runs saved by framing and defensive runs saved (DRS - used by the Fielding Bible). When they were added up, Martin saved 1.7 runs, Perez was 4.1 runs below average (-4.1), but both were way behind Jason Castro at 16.9 runs. By StatCorner's measurements, he was the 7th best pitch framing catcher for total work on the year. He was above average in all 4 of those categories too, which neither Martin nor Perez could say. 1B - Eric Hosmer (Royals), Mike Napoli (Rangers), Mark Teixeira (Yankees) Though Napoli played in only 899 innings at 1B, that was actually only about 15 innings fewer than Teixeira played (and 455 fewer than Hosmer). However, he had 3 DRS (vs 5 for Teixeira and just 1 for Hosmer) and a 4.4 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR - Fangraphs preferred defensive metric) vs 1.0 for Hosmer and 0.4 for Teixeira. Interestingly, by DRS, the top 6 defensive first basemen all played in the National League this year. 2B - Jose Altuve (Astros), Brian Dozier (Twins), Ian Kinsler (Tigers) Kinsler was the Fielding Bible award winner for best overall 2B in the majors. At 19 DRS, which was 6 more than second place (and 11 more than second best in the AL), it's easy to see why. He also paced the AL in UZR and UZR/150 games (a common way of equalizing playing time). 3B - Adrian Beltre (Rangers), Evan Longoria (Rays), Manny Machado (Orioles) A long time fielding legend, Beltre can still pick it at age 36. He led the AL in DRS by 4 over Manny Machado (who will probably win a lot of these in his career) and had the best UZR in baseball. SS - Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Alcides Escobar (Royals), Didi Gregorious (Yankees) Francisco Lindor actually led the AL in DRS this year as a shortstop, but because of the rule made when Raphael Palmeiro won (must play at least 100 games), he was not eligbile. He also led in UZR (and by UZR/150 was the best SS in all of baseball). But again, not eligible. The best of the eligible players by both measures was Gregorious. LF - Yoenis Cespedes (Tigers - partial), Brett Gardner (Yankees), Alex Gordon (Royals) By DRS, Cespedes was actually the second best LF in baseball this year (and by far the best by UZR). The problem is that he split his season between two leagues. Alex Gordon has won 4 in a row in LF, and he outdid Gardner in both UZR and DRS by a pretty good margin. CF - Kevin Kiermaier (Rays), Kevin Pillar (Blue Jays), Mike Trout (Angels) Jays fans who watched Pillar play great defense all year won't like this choice, but here's the thing. Pillar had a very good season, with 14 DRS (actually 4th in the AL, but hold on), and 14.0 UZR (3rd in the AL). What's surprising is that Mike Trout was nominated despite Lorenzo Cain having much better stats than him, but he is pretty good. Kiermaier, on the other hand, had 42 DRS (the highest ever measured), and a UZR 0f 30.0. He more than doubled every other CF in the major leagues with those totals, and was worth (by Fangraphs) 32 runs for his defense alone. He also apparently saved 65 bases on cutting down potential doubles and triples, per Fielding Bible research. Sorry, I can't argue with that. He was also the unanimous recipient of the Fielding Bible Award for CF. This is a prime argument for returning to the system of 3 outfielders (given that, as many have argued, left and right fielders are often guys who aren't fast enough for center field). RF - Kole Calhoun (Angels), J.D. Martinez (Tigers), Josh Reddick (A's) By DRS, the 4 best right fielders in baseball are in the NL. By UZR, Calhoun is the second best right fielder in baseball, and easily led the American League, as well as being the slight leader in DRS. National League P - Jake Arrieta (Cubs), Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Zack Greinke (Dodgers) Greinke led in DRS by being the only one of the three to have positive value in preventing stolen bases vs the average pitcher (Arrieta was 3 runs below average, Cole was 2 runs below average, while Greinke was 2 runs above average). This swung the totals in his favour. C - Yadier Molina (Cardinals), Buster Posey (Giants), Wilson Ramos (Nationals) Posey was also the Fielding Bible Award winner this year, as he tied with Ramos in DRS, but was ahead of him in framing runs by over 18 runs (+15.2 for Posey, -2.1 for Ramos). At 28 (and already with an MVP award, a batting title, and 3 World Series rings), this kid might have a future in the big leagues. Molina had 7 DRS and 5.7 framing runs, yet another strong season for him. 1B - Brandon Belt (Giants), Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks), Adrian Gonzalez (Dodgers) Goldschmidt won the Fielding Bible award as he almost doubled the second place finishers in DRS (18 to 10 for both Gonzalez and Belt). By UZR, Belt was a bit better, but maybe not enough to make up that advantage. 2B - Dee Gordon (Marlins), DJ LeMahieu (Rockies), Brandon Phillips (Reds) Gordon easily led the National League in DRS, though trailed two men who played in far fewer innings in UZR (Danny Espinosa and Addison Russell). He graded out significantly higher than LeMahieu and Phillips in both metrics. 3B - Nolan Arenado (Rockies), Matt Duffy (Giants), Todd Frazier (Reds) Though the Giants fan in me wants to pick Matt Duffy (and UZR says that would be a valid choice), a big lead in DRS and a Fielding Bible award suggest that Arenado is probably dezerving of this. He also made 74 out of zone plays vs 56 for Duffy. Frazier actually beat Arenado in UZR as well, but trailed both by quite a bit in DRS. SS - Brandon Crawford (Giants), Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins), Andrelton Simmons (Braves) Simmons is now a 3-time unanimous Fielding Bible award winner at shortstop. He led the league comfortably in DRS and UZR, and made tons of highlight reel plays. He is being talked about at age 26 as being potentially one of the greatest fielding shortstops of all time if he keeps this up. LF - Starling Marte (Pirates), Justin Upton (Padres), Christian Yelich (Marlins) Marte was tied for 3rd among all outfielders in DRS behind Kiermaier and Ender Inciarte (mentioned above), and was worth 9 runs for his arm in particular. He trailed Yoenis Cespedes in UZR, but doesn't have to compete with him in this league. CF - Billy Hamilton (Reds), Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), A.J. Pollock (Diamondbacks) Pollock led the National League in DRS, 6 ahead of Hamilton, and made 104 out of zone plays, trailing only Lorenzo Cain and Kevin Pillar. He cost himself runs with his arm, but made up for it with all around play otherwise. Hamilton had a big UZR lead, so he might be a good argument here too. RF - Curtis Granderson (Mets), Bryce Harper (Nationals), Jason Heyward (Cardinals) The Fielding Bible award for RF for the third time, and now with 6 straight years of double digit DRS, he nearly doubled second place, and scored a huge 20.2 UZR. He made more out of zone plays than any other right fielder (with 100). Another pretty easy choice. Summary P - Dallas Keuchel (Houston - AL), Zack Greinke (Los Angeles - NL) C - Jason Castro (Houston - AL), Buster Posey (San Francisco - NL) 1B - Mike Napoli (Boston, Texas - AL), Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona - NL) 2B - Ian Kinsler (Detroit - AL), Dee Gordon (Miami - NL) 3B - Adrian Beltre (Texas - AL), Nolan Arenado (Colorado - NL) SS - Didi Gregorious (New York - AL), Andrelton Simmons (Atlanta - NL) LF - Alex Gordon (Kansas City - AL), Starling Marte (Pittsburgh - NL) CF - Kevin Kiermaier (Tampa Bay - AL), A.J. Pollock (Arizona - NL) RF - Kole Calhoun (Anaheim - AL), Jason Heyward (St. Louis - NL) I'll be back maybe tomorrow with some thoughts on the end of Grantland and some favourite stories. Thanks for reading.
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The links might become a slightly less frequent feature during the offseason, which will start at the latest 8 days from now. I'm assuming, because many weeks may not have as many things to link to. Awards season, free agency, that sort of thing. But for now, it's World Series time. Game 1 was a good one. Started off with a strange and exciting play, ended with.... a sacrifice fly. But there you go, there were 14 innings of action altogether. And condolences to Royals starter Edinson Volquez. Some things are bigger than baseball.
To the links!
This is not intended to be an in depth analysis. Only to note the following:
I just wanted to mention that if you enjoy reading this, and you want to know when you can read new posts, there appears to be an RSS feed on the right side (though I haven't used that myself), and also, I post when I have something new on twitter at twitter.com/sittinontop so feel free to follow me if you are somebody who uses twitter.
Also, I've mentioned once, but might as well add again, if you have any feedback, please do fill out the "Quick Survey" on the right side, it may help me decide on some future posts and things. And please do leave comments on any post if you have any. My predictions for the Championship Series went 1 for 2, unfortunately. I plan to do a looking back post on the Blue Jays and their season (and perhaps on the "strike zone" in the top of the 9th inning of game 6). But for now, I'm looking forward, and there is a new series to preview. In this case, thanks to the Mets sweep of the Cubs and the Royals victory in 6 games, there will be a couple of days off until the next series starts on Tuesday. The Mets sound like they will line up their starters as follows: deGrom, Syndergaard, Harvey, Matz. For the Royals, Ventura probably won't be available until at least game 2, so it will depend whether they have more trust right now in Edinson Volquez or Johnny Cueto for game 1. The schedule will be as follows (games 5-7 if necessary):
Game 1 - Tuesday, October 27 in Kansas City Game 2 - Wednesday, October 28 in Kansas City Game 3 - Friday, October 30 in New York Game 4 - Saturday, October 31 in New York Game 5 - Sunday, November 1 in New York Game 6 - Tuesday, November 3 in Kansas City Game 7 - Wednesday, November 4 in Kansas City As an aside, many people have written many words about the somewhat ridiculous fact that the World Series now goes into November for a sport that can be very affected by weather. Game 6 of the ALCS this year was on October 23, which was the date of Game 6 of the World Series in 1993 (and Jose Bautista did his best Joe Carter impression, but got no support - again, more on that in another post). It is difficult because the playoffs now go 3 rounds vs the 2 they used to go. The truth is, most years it doesn't go quite this late. Opening day this year was April 5, vs March 30 and March 31 the last 2 years. Last year, the World Series started on October 21, which was game 5 of the ALCS and game 4 of the NLCS this year. So it may be a quirk of the schedule, but it seems like it would be better to start a bit earlier to try to actually finish in October. There have also been people nearly every year who propose slightly shrinking the schedule to 154 games (which was the standard length until 1961), and some think that there is a legitimate chance that it will see heavy discussion before the expiration of the current CBA between the players and owners, though obviously there will be much money discussed. But more on that in another post sometime. Kansas City Royals (95-67) vs New York Mets (90-72) Another aside, the Royals have home field advantage because... the American League won the All Star Game. People write about this every year, but this is really a silly way to decide home field advantage. Some bluster that "well, we need to be able to make travel arrangements, and how would we know where to go in advance" but that argument holds less than no water because the matchup isn't decided until the previous round ends anyway. People have proposed different things (they used to alternate between leagues, another silly way to go, but explains why the Blue Jays opened the 1992 World Series in Atlanta, and the 1993 World Series in Toronto). Let's propose right here that the simplest way would be by record, which would produce the same result this year. And realistically, it might make 3 possibilities for the World Series vs the current two. Use the All Star Game or Interleague records as a tiebreaker if you want. Second aside over. So the Royals and Mets didn't face each other this year, but through a lucky hit by the schedule makers, they actually open the 2016 season against each other, so there will be an immediate rematch. This is actually helpful in analysis, because some people got a little too excited about the Cubs 7-0 record against the Mets in the regular season, and, well, look at how that worked out. I thought the Mets starting pitching would make for a tough matchup against the Cubs, but I honestly didn’t see that dominance coming. Maybe I should have, but they are a legitimately frightening contender this year. In the Royals, though, they will face a team that is almost the Cubs’ polar opposite. The Cubs struck out over 20% more than the league average this season, and almost 10% more than the second place team. The Royals, meanwhile, struck out over 20% less than league average, and more than 10% less than the second lowest team total. Interestingly, this led to a team .321 OBP for the Cubs, and a team .322 OBP for the Royals, so they made outs at almost exactly the same rate (and if you remove pitchers, the Cubs had a team .332 OBP vs a .322 OBP for the Royals). Regular Season Royals .269/.322/.412, 98 OPS+, 139 HR, 104 SB, 4.47 R/G Mets .244/.312/.400, 98 OPS+, 177 HR, 51 SB, 4.22 R/G Royals 3.96 RA/G, 4.04 FIP, 111 ERA+, 7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 Mets 3.78 RA/G, 3.53 FIP, 107 ERA+, 8.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 Playoffs Royals .271/.328/.449, 11 G, 63 R, 15 HR, 71 K, 27 BB, 7 SB Mets .235/.300/.433, 9 G, 43 R, 14 HR, 94 K, 26 BB, 9 SB Royals 4.41 ERA, 96.0 IP, 114 K, 40 BB, 15 HR, 1.29 WHIP Mets 2.81 ERA, 80.0 IP, 91 K, 22 BB, 6 HR, 1.04 WHIP Taking a quick look at the numbers between the two teams, boy the Mets can pitch. They were a tough team in the regular season, but have kicked it up a notch in the playoffs (though some would argue that the Royals have faced tougher opponents). C – Salvador Perez (KCR) vs Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) Perez has now played 318 games in the last two seasons including playoffs, and he will start every game in this World Series unless he literally breaks. That might put him at 2 full 162 game seasons, which is probably way too much for a catcher. He’s only 25, but you kind of hope he can stick around for a while. Meanwhile, d’Arnaud is actually older than Perez by over a year, but has been brought along a little more slowly and has already struggled a bit in his career with injuries. d'Arnaud is a better pure hitter than Perez (.340 OBP this year for d’Arnaud, .280 OBP for Perez). Both have some power (Perez hit 21 HR in the regular season plus 4 in the playoffs, d’Arnaud hit 12 in less than half as many games in the regular season plus 3 in the playoffs). Perez has a good reputation for working with his staff, though d’Arnaud has much better pitch framing numbers. This is a close matchup, but if d’Arnaud can steal a couple of strikes and make a couple fewer outs, he might take it. Advantage - Mets 1B – Eric Hosmer (KCR) vs Lucas Duda (NYM) Hosmer turns 26 today, and this year seemed to really show the promise that made him a top prospect five years ago. He seems to be the opposite of the San Francisco Giants, putting up good numbers in odd years, and struggling in even years. Duda has been in the major leagues about as long as Hosmer, though he is 3 and a half years older. He seems to be a consistent .350 OBP guy with around 30 HR power, which is valuable in the current offensive environment. In the field, Duda actually rates a little bit better than Hosmer by dWAR, though Hosmer has won the Gold Glove in the AL the last two seasons. Both players have struggled a bit during this year’s playoffs, though Hosmer did have the game- and series-winning RBI yesterday (thanks much more to Lorenzo Cain’s running than anything). Advantage – Tie (too much splitting hairs in too many directions here, maybe they’re just even enough) 2B – Ben Zobrist (KCR) vs Daniel Murphy (NYM) Zobrist has had a pretty good postseason, hitting .326/.375/.558 with 4 doubles and 2 home runs, but Murphy has gone crazy, hitting .421/.436/1.026 with 2 doubles and 7 home runs. Zobrist has been an underrated but excellent player since 2009, though his value tumbled this year mostly thanks to negative defensive numbers at every position he played this year for the first time since then. Murphy was a high contact hitter this year (only 38 strikeouts in 499 at bats), and has been a consistently decent hitter for average the last 5 years, but this power seems to have come from nowhere. It’s hard to imagine Murphy continuing what he did in the first two rounds, but then it was pretty hard to imagine him doing it in the first place. Advantage – Mets (though, baseball being baseball, Murphy could go 0 for the World Series and it wouldn’t be that shocking) 3B – Mike Moustakas (KCR) vs David Wright (NYM) Both men have struggled in the playoffs so far, with identical .167 batting averages, but Wright has drawn 9 walks in 9 games, and Moustakas has drawn 2 walks in 11 games. Moustakas made huge strides this year and is looking a bit like the star that many prospect lists predicted. Wright, meanwhile struggled with injuries this year, but hit well when he was in the lineup, and frankly I like his chances to handle KC’s starting pitching more than Moose’s chances at handling the Mets starters. Advantage - Mets SS – Alcides Escobar (KCR) vs Wilmer Flores (NYM) Hot hitting and ALCS MVP aside, Escobar is not a great hitter (career OBP of .298, which is higher than his full season mark this year of .293), but then, neither is Flores (OBP of .295 in his first full season this year). Flores is just 24, nearly 5 years younger than his counterpart with the Royals. Right now, Escobar is a bit more established and has been an excellent defensive shortstop during his career. And yes, I’m giving Daniel Murphy a bit more credit for his NLCS than Escobar, but his hitting does seem a bit more well-rounded. Advantage - Royals LF – Alex Gordon (KCR) vs Michael Conforto & Juan Lagares* (NYM) The asterisk there is because Lagares will probably play CF when he plays, shifting Cespedes to LF (and I might guess Conforto at DH during games in Kansas City). For the long term, Conforto is a good looking hitting prospect, but he is just 22 and has struggled so far in the playoffs. Gordon has been a very good player the past 5 seasons, and one of the best fielders in LF in the league. I’d probably rather have Conforto for the next 5 years than Gordon, given that Gordon will be 32 next year and struggled with some injuries this year, but for now he is the better player. Advantage - Royals CF – Lorenzo Cain (KCR) vs Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) Cespedes got a little bit overrated thanks to the Mets hot play in the second half that coincided with his arrival, but he actually accumulated 6.3 WAR this year vs 7.2 for Cain, so this is closer than you might think. Cain hits for a slightly higher average, with more speed, less power, and excellent fielding. Cespedes is an above average fielder in LF, though maybe not in CF, but has a great arm, and hits for very good power (83 extra base hits this year). Both have been decent in the playoffs, though neither has had to carry their respective teams. They have fairly different strengths but they balance out pretty well. Advantage – Royals (very slight – this came close to being a second tie) RF – Alex Rios (KCR) vs Curtis Granderson (NYM) Two of the older players in the starting lineups at 34 years old. Rios hit better than expected in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but has really struggled in the last two regular seasons. Granderson, meanwhile, had his best season since 2011 this year, though the slide of the two years before may be more likely to continue than his performance this year. Advantage - Mets DH – Kendrys Morales (KCR) vs Michael Conforto? (NYM) Morales was much better than expected this season for the Royals, and has hit 4 home runs in 11 playoff games so far this year, though he is a definite threat to hit into a double play when there is a runner on first. If the DH here is Conforto, he has every chance to break out or continue to struggle. Hopefully the Mets don’t go the Cuddyer route, but it’s hard to say. Morales will probably be relegated to pinch hit duty when the series shifts to New York, unless they decide they want his bat more than Alex Rios and try putting Hosmer in RF (which would probably be a bad decision). Advantage – Royals (kind of by default) Bench – Drew Butera (C), Paulo Orlando (OF), Jarrod Dyson (OF), Terrance Gore (OF), Christian Colon (IF) (KCR) vs Kevin Plawecki (C), Matt Reynolds (IF), Kelly Johnson (UT), Juan Uribe (IF) or Kirk Neuwenhuis (OF), Michael Cuddyer (OF/1B) The Royals bench is mostly pinch runners. If Juan Uribe is healthy enough to make the roster, he might get some big at bats, maybe even a start at some point, though that’s hard to predict. Advantage – Mets (kind of by default, since Yost isn’t likely to do much with his beyond run) SP – Johnny Cueto (RHP), Yordano Ventura (RHP), Edinson Volquez (RHP), Chris Young (RHP) (KCR) vs Jacob deGrom (RHP), Noah Syndergaard (RHP), Matt Harvey (RHP), Steven Matz (LHP) (NYM) The numbers above tell one side of the story. Here’s another side. Maximum and Average Velocity this season and this playoffs for each pitcher: Mets deGrom 99.03 mph / 95.81 mph Syndergaard 101.33 mph / 97.78 mph Harvey 100.23 mph / 96.54 mph Matz 96.93 mph / 94.57 mph Cueto 97.27 mph / 93.24 mph Ventura 100.54 mph / 96.92 mph Volquez 98.21 mph / 95.04 mph Young 90.16 mph / 87.18 mph There is going to be some heat in game 2 if Ventura matches up with Syndergaard. Or game 3 if he matches up with Harvey. That the Mets slowest fastball averages just under 95 mph with a max of just under 97 mph is kind of terrifying. These are their starting pitchers, not their bullpen. deGrom, the NL Rookie of the Year last year is actually the oldest of the 4 Mets at 27 years old. Harvey is 26, Syndergaard is 23, and Matz 24. All of which is to say, this team may not go away soon. The Royals starters seem almost geriatric at 29, 24, 32 and 36 years old. This may be the difference maker in this series. Advantage - Mets RP – Wade Davis (RHP), Ryan Madson (RHP), Kelvin Herrera (RHP), Luke Hochevar (RHP), Kris Medlen (RHP), Franklin Morales (LHP), Danny Duffy (LHP) (KCR) vs Jeurys Familia (RHP), Tyler Clippard (RHP), Bartolo Colon (RHP), Addison Reed (RHP), Jonathon Niese (LHP), Hansel Robles (RHP), Erik Goeddel (RHP) (NYM) The Royals have the more famous bullpen after their success last year and this year, but the Mets have an effective group, including Jeurys Familia and his nearly 95 mph split-finger fastball (now that just seems unfair). The Royals prefer to shorten the game by going to their bullpen (55 IP in 11 starts), while the Mets are happy to let their starters dominate a little more (54.1 IP in 9 starts – though 44.2 IP in 7 starts by their top 3 guys). The Mets will want to take a lead in the first 5-6 innings, in general, though that’s probably the Royals preferred strategy as well. Advantage – Royals On offense, the Royals might have a slight advantage, though the Mets have been pretty good in the second half of the season, with their regular season numbers dragged down by struggles early on. The playoff numbers are dragged down a bit by having to face Kershaw and Greinke for 4 games in the first round as well. Among the pitchers, the Mets have a great rotation and a decent bullpen, and the Royals have a decent rotation and a great bullpen. As with last round, I like the advantage that this gives the Mets. Prediction – Mets in 6 Imagine on July 28, when the Blue Jays had sunk to 50-51, that somebody had told you that in just under 3 months, the Jays would be starting David Price (!) in Game 6 of the ALCS (!!) with a chance to start Marcus Stroman (!!!) in Game 7 if they won.
It has felt almost disappointing to see the Jays drop 3 of the first 4 games in this series after how well they played in the last third of the season, taking the American League East for the first time in 22 years. But honestly, they've come so far, they've given us two full rounds (so far) of playoff baseball, and energized the whole country. There would be no shame in losing to Kansas City (a sentence that might have sounded strange 18 months ago) in the ALCS. They are the defending American League Champion, they had the best record in the AL this year, and they were one Madison Bumgarner from being defending World Champion. That the Jays still have more than a fighting chance to beat them is pretty awesome. Much has been written about David Price, about his use, about his playoff record. I read today that he feels like his problem in some of his playoff starts has been trying to be a little too perfect, make his pitches be a little bit too fine. He is one of the top pitchers in the league, and if he can just relax and pitch his game tomorrow, the Jays would have every chance to win, and then have a rematch of Game 3 to move on. It's hard to win on the road, and Kansas City has been great at home, but the Jays have shown resilience so far in the playoffs, and are now 4-0 when facing elimination. I hope they can make that 6-0 by the end of Saturday, but either way, Canada will remember this team, and they'll be back next year, to defend whatever they have accomplished. So I did a quick redesign of this blog, just to adjust the look a bit. It may adjust again eventually, but this is a good start.
I also added a quick survey on the side bar. If you feel like letting me know (if you're reading this with any regularity) what your favourite type of posts are, and if you have any suggested topics, that would be awesome. I'm not sure that you can make multiple selections, but you may be able to vote multiple times? I'm more curious to see feedback and what has been interesting people. If you want to leave more specific feedback, feel free to leave a comment either to this post or any other. I would be happy to read and respond to any of them. It's been a couple of days, so I'm going to start with a selection of good links for this week.
Quickly, we might as well acknowledge the fact that the Blue Jays are in trouble. Losing the first 2 games on the road wasn't too big a deal, especially when they won game 3 at home. Losing game 4 by 12 runs in a game where their utility infielder pitched in the 9th inning... that's not a great look. Their hitting has struggled outside of yesterday, including many swings and misses against a pitcher today who doesn't usually get a lot of them. Their bullpen seems to have 2 guys in it who Gibbons trusts, although Hendriks should be back on that list (but not available tomorrow I'm sure). Of course, I don't concede the series just yet. Marco Estrada pitched well enough in game 1 that I trust him to do the same or better tomorrow, and if the Jays can score a little bit, they have a chance. They would then need to win 2 more on the road, but would get a chance to do so with what should be their two best pitchers. And, as somebody pointed out on Twitter, this could just be an elaborate revenge plot for 1985, when the Royals came back from a 3-1 deficit including the final 2 games on the road to beat Toronto in the ALCS. They added to that by coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series too. It's not over, and momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher. Don't give up just yet. I have to say, I'm pretty happy with how my predictions for the Division Series ended up. I hadn't expected to go 4/4, but with normal luck, I could easily go 0/2 in this round. But given the one pick I have already made, I hope I at least get that one right. Check a couple of posts ago for a preview of the Jays Royals series.
The Jays have announced that their rotation will go as follows: Marco Estrada, David Price, Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Estrada (if necessary), Price (if necessary), Stroman (if necessary). The Royals are lined up as follows: Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Johnny Cueto, TBD (Kris Medlen or Chris Young probably), Volquez (if necessary), Ventura (if necessary), Cueto (if necessary). Chicago Cubs (97-65) vs New York Mets (90-72) The Mets have home field advantage because they won their division, while the Cubs actually came in 3rd in the tough NL central even though their raw record was actually 3rd best across Major League Baseball. Before the NLDS round started, I thought that the Cubs best chance to beat the Cardinals would be to steal some runs against a tough pitching staff with their young bats and at least get one great start out of their ace, Jake Arrieta. As it turned out, their offense was the key. And they did win Arrieta's start, but allowed the most runs of any of the 4 games in the series, because of course they did. On the Mets side, I thought they might have a good shot at getting to the Dodgers bullpen and break through against Brett Anderson. The second part was exactly right, as they won game 3 by a 13-7 score, but the bullpen wasn't the Dodgers' main issue, it was the Mets young starters, who matched up with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke and beat them each once, which was just enough. Now the Mets find themselves in the reasonably familiar version of underdog. Despite being a New York team, they often find themselves in the shadow of the team in the Bronx in headlines, attention, and money spent. And against the Dodgers' $307 million payroll they were definitely facing a perceived Goliath. What might be less familiar to them is the roll of villain, as America is embracing the young Cubs team and hoping for them to end their 107-year title drought and prove Marty McFly right (though they won't be facing a team from Miami in the World Series – but the fact that they made that prediction is impressive in and of itself because at the time, there was no team in Miami). Many have already noted that the Mets went a very unimpressive 0-7 against the Cubs this year. (Aside – the Mets actually went winless against two teams this year (Cubs: 0-7, Pirates 0-6) and undefeated against two other teams (Reds: 7-0, Rockies: 7-0). I'm not sure how often that has happened, but it is at least curious). All 7 of those games, however, came before the All Star Break, before the Mets had made their trade deadline moves. The last loss to the Cubs dropped the Mets to 40-40. They would go 50-32 the rest of the way. The Cubs victory raised their record to 42-35. They would go an even better 55-30 the rest of the way. Which is all to say, probably throw out those results. Both teams are better now, and have some different players. Also, rather than type out all of the stats for each position, I'll mention if anything stands out among any of the players here. For Cubs playoff stats, click here, and for the Mets, click here. I'll also generally put their most likely starters unless it's likely that one position will see some change. Joe Maddon of the Cubs does seem to switch things around depending on matchups and other things, so guys in the Bench section may seem some real time. C – Miguel Montero, David Ross (CHC) vs Travis d'Arnaud (NYM) Neither team received much offense from its catching, though d'Arnaud did hit a home run against the Dodgers. Offensively, d'Arnaud is probably a bit better than Montero at this point, and has a good future if he can stay healthy (which has been an issue for him). The Cubs receivers are among the best in the game at pitch framing, and are working with some veteran pitchers, but d'Arnaud was actually better on a per game basis than Montero this year. Advantage – Mets 1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC) vs Lucas Duda (NYM) Rizzo hit two big home runs for the Cubs against the Cardinals, but has only had one other hit in the playoffs so far. Duda managed to strike out 11 times in 18 at bats after having to face 3 left-handed starters in the Dodgers series. The Cubs do have one tough lefty in Jon Lester, but he may do a bit better against their third and fourth men. Advantage - Cubs 2B – Javier Baez (probably – Addison Russell will miss NLCS) (CHC) vs Daniel Murphy (NYM) Daniel Murphy, who had very little success against left-handed pitching during the regular season, managed to hit two home runs off of Clayton Kershaw, plus the game winning home run against Zack Greinke. It will be quite a story if he can continue his performance against Lester in game 1. Javier Baez will probably take over for Addison Russell for this series, and has gone 4/5 with a home run so far in the playoffs. He has a bright future, but can be pretty strikeout prone, so he'll have some tough matchups against the Mets. Advantage – Mets (though in the long term, probably the Cubs) 3B – Kris Bryant (CHC) vs David Wright (NYM) David Wright has had a fine career, and is one of the best Mets of all time, but he is 32 now, has struggled with injuries the last couple of years (and this year in particular), and has not looked great so far in the playoffs. Bryant may be one of baseball's new superstars after a great rookie season. He could also see some time at other positions in this series, as Joe Maddon is happy to move people around for matchups. Advantage - Cubs SS – Starlin Castro (see note from 2B) (CHC) vs Wilmer Flores (NYM) It is possible that Baez will actually play SS and keep Castro at 2B, but for now I'll go with these as comparisons. Flores is another injury replacement after Ruben Tejada's leg was broken by Chase Utley early in the Dodgers series, although he did get significant playing time during the season. Castro has had some ups and downs in his career already, though he is only 25 still. Advantage – Cubs (same advantages if Castro and Baez are swapped) LF – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) vs Michael Conforto & Juan Lagares (NYM) Schwarber is quickly turning into a fan favourite with his slightly round physique and a penchant for absolutely destroying baseballs, including one that landed on top of the Cubs huge scoreboard in right field, where it will stay permanently. Conforto was a highly touted prospect for the Mets as well, and had a solid regular season, though he hasn't yet displayed quite the flare for the dramatic of Schwarber. In games that Lagares plays, he is more likely to move to CF and shift Cespedes over to LF probably. Neither Schwarber nor Conforto are exceptional fielders, but both can provide plenty of fireworks at the plate. Advantage - Cubs CF – Dexter Fowler (CHC) vs Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) Fowler has had a good playoffs so far, starting with a strong game in the Wild Card matchup against the Pirates. He helps get the Cubs offense going at the top of the lineup. Cespedes has been a huge part of the Mets second half success this year, and has a flair for the dramatic, including great (thought in my opionion, not quite Bautista-esque) bat flips. Advantage - Mets RF – Jorge Soler (CHC) vs Curtis Granderson (NYM) Soler didn't start the first couple of games for the Cubs, but after reaching base in 9 consecutive plate appearances, his numbers (.571/.769/1.571 over 13 plate appearances) demanded a spot in the lineup. He can be very strikeout prone, though he has 6 walks vs 1 strikeout so far in the playoffs. Granderson had a very good year after 3 years of declining performance, but at age 34 he is likely still on the downslope of a fine career. Advantage - Cubs Bench – Austin Jackson (OF), Chris Coghlan (OF), Chris Denorfia (OF), Tommy La Stella (IF), Ross (C), Jonathan Herrera (IF – possible Russell replacement) (CHC) vs Kelly Johnson (UT), Michael Cuddyer (1B/OF), Kevin Plawecki (C), Matt Reynolds (IF), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (OF) The Cubs players are more likely to see playing time as Joe Maddon mixes his lineups and makes defensive replacements (Schwarber in particular seems to come out late in games), and they have some quality players on their bench. David Ross may get into the starting lineup when Jon Lester pitches as well. Advantage - Cubs SP – Jon Lester (LHP), Jake Arrieta (RHP), Kyle Hendricks (RHP), Jason Hammel (RHP) (CHC) vs Matt Harvey (RHP), Noah Syndergaard (RHP), Jacob deGrom (RHP), Steven Matz (LHP) (NYM) The Cubs have announced already that Jon Lester will pitch game 1, and Jake Arrieta will go in game 2. If the series goes at least 6 games, both starter would pitch twice, and evidently Maddon wants to give Arrieta one extra day off after a long start against Pittsburgh and some struggles against St. Louis. The Mets showed their strength against the Dodgers, and if you thought there were a lot of strikeouts in that series, their could be some serious whiffing in this one as the Cubs led MLB in strikeouts by 126 more than the second place team during the regular season (and 260 more than the Dodgers in particular). The Cubs may have an advantage in 2 of the games this series, but if it were to go 7 games, the Mets might have the better starter in 5 of them, depending on your feelings around Harvey vs Lester. Advantage - Mets RP – Hector Rondon (RHP), Trevor Cahill (RHP), Pedro Strop (RHP), Travis Wood (LHP), Clayton Richard (LHP), Fernando Rodney (RHP), Justin Grimm (RHP) (CHC) vs Jeurys Familia (RHP), Addison Reed (RHP), Tyler Clippard (RHP), Bartolo Colon (RHP), Hansel Robles (RHP), Jonathon Niese (LHP), Erik Goeddel (RHP) (NYM) Neither team has an exceptionally big name in their bullpen, and both have a couple of guys who have usually worked as starters in their careers (Cahill and Wood for Chicago, Colon and Niese for New York). It's hard to pick one group who will have the advantage here, though Joe Maddon's creativity could tilt it slightly in favour of the Cubs. On the other hand, look at “closers”, Familia probably is better than Rondon. Advantage – Cubs (slight, mostly because of manager). I said up at the top that the Mets 0-7 record against the Cubs shouldn't matter for these purposes (not least because that's just not that many games). The Cubs scored just 27 runs in winning those 7 games, but held the Mets to 11. I can see them pitching well particularly in Arrieta's starts (though he did struggle in his last start), but the Mets pitching really looked excellent against the Dodgers. In a matchup of young fireballing pitchers against a young powerful offense, the Cubs' huge propensity for strikeouts (just under 9 per game in the regular season) might turn into an Achilles heel against the Mets' rotation. Prediction – Mets in 7 (sorry America) I spent a chunk of yesterday's post going over game 5 of the Jays-Rangers series, and, in particular, inning 7 of game 5, and, in particular the moment after the count went to 2-2 with 2 outs in the top of the 7th to the 3rd pitch thrown to the 6th batter of the bottom of the 7th inning. The thing is, a lot of other people did too, and there are lots of fun perspectives. So far I've just been doing links once a week, but that game and that inning have enough links already that they're worth sharing if you haven't found them.
Edit - I've been adding new links when I've found them, I'll try to note that.
Enjoy everybody. Round two starts tomorrow. I hope it does go 7. I hope every series does. All the baseball! |
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Greg JacksonA baseball fan in general. Interested in statistics and analytics. Usually follow the Giants and Blue Jays, fan of all MLB in general. |