Because we're all starting to get excited about the Blue Jays possibly (even probably at this point) ending the 22 year playoff drought, I thought it might be fun to compare the 2015 team to their position counterparts from the 1992 or 1993 teams. I'll give total stats from all players who played that position (you can find such splits at Baseball Reference).
C - Russel Martin/Dioner Navarro vs Pat Borders 2015 - .242/.315/.426, 23 HR, 29 2B, 2 3B, 2 SB, 55 BB, 125 K 1992 - .233/.283/.373, 16 HR, 30 2B, 2 3B, 1 SB, 41 BB, 90 K 1993 - .253/.291/.383, 13 HR, 33 2B, 2 3B, 2 SB, 30 BB, 94 K 1B - Chris Colabello/Justin Smoak vs John Olerud 2015 - .248/.323/.493, 36 HR, 29 2B,1 3B, 2 SB, 60 BB, 153 K 1992 - .274/.359/.419, 18 HR, 31 2B, 0 3B, 1 SB, 81 BB, 76 K 1993 - .382/.483/.637, 29 HR, 55 2B, 3 3B, 2 SB, 112 BB, 71 K 2B - Devon Travis/Ryan Goins vs Roberto Alomar 2015 - .250/.323/.394, 13 HR, 35 2B, 0 3B, 7 SB, 53 BB, 105 K 1992 - .298/.389/.411, 8 HR, 31 2B, 8 3B, 50 SB, 90 BB, 63 K 1993 - .310/.389/.465, 17 HR, 36 2B, 6 3B, 55 SB, 81 BB, 77 K 3B - Josh Donaldson vs Ed Sprague/Kelly Gruber 2015 - .301/.369/.572, 39 HR, 42 2B, 2 3B, 7 SB, , 64 BB, 133 K 1992 - .230/.288/.373, 18 HR, 27 2B, 3 3B, 8 SB, 44 BB, 116 K 1993 - .261/.311/.385, 12 HR, 35 2B, 2 3B, 2 SB, 34 BB, 94 K SS - Jose Reyes/Troy Tulowitzki vs Manny Lee/Tony Fernandez & Friends 2015 - .269/.323/.384, 11 HR, 27 2B, 4 3B, 17 SB, 45 BB, 109 K 1992 - .258/.328/.311, 3 HR, 15 2B, 2 3B, 9 SB, 57 BB, 90 K 1993 - .264/.325/.359, 4 HR, 22 2B, 11 3B, 19 SB, 54 BB, 64 K LF - Ben Revere/Ezequiel Carrera vs Candy Maldonado/Rickey Henderson & Friends 2015 - .282/.323/.386, 11 HR, 27 2B, 0 3B, 10 SB, 35 BB, 120 K 1992 - .269/.349/.451, 22 HR, 31 2B, 5 3B, 4 SB, 67 BB, 133 K 1993 - .241/.331/.407, 20 HR, 30 2B, 5 3B, 27 SB, 79 BB, 108 K CF - Kevin Pillar vs Devon White 2015 - .261/.304/.382, 12 HR, 28 2B, 2 3B, 21 SB, 32 BB, 91 K 1992 - .251/.306/.392, 17 HR, 29 2B, 9 3B, 39 SB, 49 BB, 145 K 1993 - .274/.338/.432, 16 HR, 46 2B, 6 3B, 35 SB, 61 BB, 147 K RF - Jose Bautista vs Joe Carter 2015 - .251/.358/.489, 35 HR, 21 2B, 2 3B, 8 SB, 90 BB, 121 K 1992 - .289/.341/.520, 32 HR, 36 2B, 9 3B, 14 SB, 48 BB, 110 K 1993 - .222/.289/.397, 27 HR, 24 2B, 3 3B, 8 SB, 55 BB, 122 K DH - Edwin Encarnacion vs Paul Molitor/Dave Winfield 2015 - .295/.387/.551, 30 HR, 41 2B, 1 3B, 4 SB, 78 BB, 97 K 1992 - .267/.352/.465, 29 HR, 32 2B, 2 3B, 2 SB, 78 BB, 101 K 1993 - .308/.383/.471, 20 HR, 36 2B, 4 3B, 20 SB, 80 BB, 77 K Starting Pitchers 2015 - 67-40, 4.00 ERA, 905.0 IP, 614 K, 258 BB, 107 HR, 1.271 WHIP, ~4.04 FIP 1992 - 74-54, 4.09 ERA, 1037.2 IP, 638 K, 379 BB, 96 HR, 1.302 WHIP, ~4.07 FIP 1993 - 70-50, 4.63 ERA, 999.1 IP, 649 K, 432 BB, 103 HR, 1.456 WHIP, ~4.34 FIP Relief Pitchers 2015 - 19-25, 31 Sv, 3.39 ERA, 440.1 IP, 427 K, 119 BB, 49 HR, 1.136 WHIP, ~3.32 FIP 1992 - 21-12, 49 Sv, 3.46 ERA, 403.0 IP, 316 K, 162 BB, 28 HR, 1.330 WHIP, ~3.54 FIP 1993 - 25-17, 50 Sv, 3.30 ERA, 442.0 IP, 374 K, 188 BB, 31 HR, 1.371 WHIP, ~3.50 FIP Obviously 2015 is not complete, but with 11 games left, it gives a decent enough comparison. Thoughts, position by position. C (2015) - Pat Borders holds a special place in nostalgic Jays fans' hearts, but Russell Martin is pretty clearly better than either version (and by defensive estimates, quite a bit better). Can he heat up in the playoffs the way PB did? 1B (1993) - Interesting comparing between 2015 and 1992, as this year's version has more power with less on base ability. Both get destroyed by 1993 led mostly by John Olerud's league-high marks in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. 2B (1993) - Even with Devon Travis healthy, there was no way that a Hall of Fame player in his prime wasn't going to be quite a bit better. Both Alomars were pretty great, though he picked up the rate stats a bit in 1993 for probably his best. 3B (2015) - A similar runaway to first base, Josh Donaldson is a leading MVP candidate. Sprague and Gruber, eh... not so much. SS (push) - With a healthy Troy Tulowitzki all year, 2015 probably takes it relatively easily. But going by the actual stats, there's not a lot to push one year ahead of another. Tulo, Fernandez and Lee are / were all pretty good fielders. This year's iteration is able to hit more long balls. LF (1992) - The first win for the first squad, led by the Candy Man, this is a pretty solid line overall. CF (1993) - 1992 and 2015 are almost strikingly similar, and Kevin Pillar is putting up great defensive numbers. Devon White at that period was (and still is) seen as one of the best center field defenders of all time. And his offense picked up in 1993, so he looks like the best. RF (1992) - This is close between 1992 and 2015, but I'll give the first team a win again on the strength of that 520 slugging percentage. Nostalgia for Carter aside though, that OBP is not mostly him, as he contributed a characteristically weak .309 that year. Dave Winfield chipped in enough in 26 games out there that the stats get bumped up. DH (2015) - I really thought this would go to 1993 with Paul Molitor placing second in the batting race and getting significant MVP support. But 2015 numbers are better in multiple areas. Offense overall - Pretty close. 2015 and 1993 each lead at 3 positions, 1992 leads at 2, and one gets a rough tie. SP (2015/1992) - Tough to call, both are in not especially run-scoring environments, both added a big-name pitcher later in the season (Price, David Cone). The 1992 team was able to beat out the young stars in Atlanta in the World Series, so if I had to pick based on a tie-breaker, they might get it, but we still have playoffs to go here. RP (1993) - Definite loss in the SP for this group, but the bullpen helped hold them together a lot of the time. The current team has a big lead in strikeouts, but that's a league-wide thing at that point. Among starting pitchers, there isn't that much of a difference. So what does it all mean? In another way to look at it, the 2015 Jays are 1st in the American League in Runs Scored, Avg, OBP, Slg, HR, BB, and 5th in SB. The 1992 Jays, not as known for their offense, were 2nd in Runs Scored, 5th in Avg, 6th in OBP, 1st in Slg, 2nd in HR, 6th in BB, and 7th in SB. The 1993 Jays were 2nd in Runs Scored, 1st in Avg, 3rd in OBP, 1st in Slg, 6th in HR, 7th in BB, and 1st in SB. This years team is more of an offensive juggernaut than either of the other two were, though the 1993 team was closer. Pitching-wise, the 2015 Jays are 4th in the league in ERA, 1st with fewest BB allowed, 8th in HR allowed, 12th in strikeouts, and have a 95 ERA- with a 4.06 FIP. The 1992 Jays were 9th in ERA, 7th in BB allowed, 6th in HR allowed, 2nd in strikeouts, and had a 96 ERA- with a 3.80 FIP. The 1993 Jays were 5th in ERA, 13th in BB allowed, 4th in HR allowed, 2nd in strikeouts, and had a 97 ERA- with a 4.13 FIP. All three teams had some strengths and weaknesses pitching wise. I can't predict the future (and if I could, I could probably make good money off of it), but the comparisons to those World Champions of the past are fun, if nothing else.
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- Clayton Kershaw - 30th lowest FIP since 1915. 6th lowest last year. A chance to be only the 4th pitcher with a FIP below 2.00 more than once (Sandy Koufax 1963 & 1965; Walter Johnson 1915-1917, Pete Alexander 1915 & 1917). Of note, Kershaw and Koufax both call / called Dodger Stadium home (though Koufax had some more extreme conditions), and Johnson and Alexander, well, over 1915-1917, exactly one player hit more than 20 home runs in a full season, and exactly one other hit more than 15. Those were both in 1915. 1916 and 1917 had nobody hit more than 12.
- Bryce Harper - His season isn't over yet, but among players under 25, Fangraphs currently puts him as having 20th best season of all time, with some time to climb that charts. By the way, among players still under 25, the 9th and 10th best seasons of all time belong to one Mike Trout in 2012 and 2013. If you go offense only (using wRC+), he climbs to 6th all time under 25. - Jake Arrieta - This came up today. After again allowing 0 runs (for the 7th time since the All-Star game), his second half ERA is down to 0.86. It is the lowest ever for the second half of a season with 13 or more starts. Nobody else has ever been below 1.00. He's having a heck of a year, though value suggests that he's still no Kershaw, and nobody is. - Mike Trout - It's always something with him. Here's a career stat, for a young guy. This is his age-23 season (he turned 24 in August, but age is counted as of June 1). He has accumulated the most WAR of any player by age 23 (37.3 and counting in 4 and a bit seasons). That's ahead of Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Mel Ott, Mickey Mantle... and, well, everybody. - Chris Sale - His strikeout per 9 inning rate of 11.97 is currently the 9th best over a full season in history. Ahead of him are Randy Johnson 6 times, Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood once each. - Aroldis Chapman - Similarly, his strikeout per 9 inning rate of 15.97 so far is the 5th best rate in history for a reliever, with a chance to climb to 4th or 3rd. He still trails the record by a decent amount, set by Aroldis Chapman, 2014. Since reaching the major leagues, Chapman has struck out 43.0% of all batters he has faced, the best of any reliever since 1915. The only other guy to pass 40% is Craig Kimbrel. For some additional fun, the leaderboard of fastest individual pitches is so one-sided at the top (there's literally one name on it), that they went ahead and created a "Chapman Filter" to give some other people a chance. - All rookies - A lot has been written about how good this years rookies have been. Among position players, there are already 7 who have accumulated over 3 WAR, led by nearly 6 from Kris Bryant. Going with an arbitrary cutoff of 1986 (30 seasons), 84 rookies accumulated over 3 WAR, or just under 3 per season, so this is pretty good. Kris Bryant is pretty close to being one of the 5 best rookies of the last 30 years, in particular. - Playoff Possibilities - Probably anybody reading this blog is well aware that the Blue Jays have not been to the playoffs since Mitch Williams threw that last pitch to Joe Carter back in 1993. That is now the longest playoff drought in the 4 major North American sports, though 22 years since a title is far from the longest, particularly among the current probable playoff participants. Quickly: Toronto Blue Jays - Last playoffs, 1993. Last title, 1993. New York Yankees - Last playoffs, 2012. Last title, 2009. Kansas City Royals - Last playoffs, 2014. Last title, 1985. Texas Rangers - Last playoffs, 2012. Last title, never (franchise started in 1961). Houston Astros - Last playoffs, 2005. Last title, never (franchise started in 1962). New York Mets - Last playoffs, 2006. Last title, 1986. St Louis Cardinals - Last playoffs, 2014. Last title, 2011. Pittsburgh Pirates - Last playoffs, 2014. Last title, 1979. Chicago Cubs - Last playoffs, 2008. Last title, 1908. Los Angeles Dodgers - Last playoffs, 2014. Last title, 1988. So of the probable playoff participants, it turns out that only two have won the World Series more recently than Toronto. Of course those 2 have combined to win 38 of 110 World Series titles, so they're often in the mix. That being said, go Jays. |
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Greg JacksonA baseball fan in general. Interested in statistics and analytics. Usually follow the Giants and Blue Jays, fan of all MLB in general. |