Fangraphs did a series previewing the power rankings at every position for all 30 teams. You can find the whole series here. Being Blue Jays and Giants-centric, I thought it would be fun to do a quick summary, with best, worst, and where those two teams rank.
AL East Red Sox - 41.5 WAR Yankees - 40.4 WAR Blue Jays - 39.6 WAR Orioles - 35.8 WAR Rays - 35.6 WAR AL Central Indians - 42.3 WAR White Sox - 36.2 WAR Tigers - 34.5 WAR Twins - 33.0 WAR Royals - 32.5 WAR AL West Astros - 42.3 WAR Mariners - 35.4 WAR Angels - 34.9 WAR Rangers - 31.8 WAR Athletics - 31.6 WAR NL East Mets - 46.2 WAR Nationals - 42.4 WAR Marlins - 32.4 WAR Braves - 20.6 WAR Phillies - 17.3 WAR NL Central Cubs - 50.5 WAR Cardinals - 39.7 WAR Pirates - 39.4 WAR Reds - 29.0 WAR Brewers - 24.4 WAR NL West Dodgers - 49.6 WAR Giants - 41.2 WAR Diamondbacks - 32.3 WAR Padres - 27.3 WAR Rockies - 25.9 WAR Fangraphs uses a WAR baseline of about .294 winning percentage, or about 47.7 wins, so adding those WAR numbers to 47.7 gets you close to the teams expected wins (although you might have to bump them down a little bit, as there are some decimals rounded here that pushes everybody up a little bit.) So good news for Toronto and San Francisco, they're both in as second wild cards by these projections. The baseline to make the playoffs seems to be about 40 WAR, which comes out to about 88 wins, which makes sense, historically. The American League has a lot of parity, with the worst team in Oakland expected to win 78-79 games, and the best teams in Cleveland and Houston projected for about 90 on the nose. The National league... umm, does not. The best teams in Chicago and Los Angeles are projected around 97-98 wins, and the worst team (Philadelphia) is shooting for 65. The National League's three division winners are projected well above any other teams. The Wild Card race could be good as the Cardinals and Pirates are just outside, but the bottom 8 teams in the NL don't look to be very competitive (Miami, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Arizona, San Diego and Colorado). Of that group, Miami and Arizona look the most hopeful as roughly .500 teams. It will be fun to see at the end of the season how close this was to reality.
0 Comments
Quick recap of the rules, adapted from Jonah Keri's teams entry in his BestCoolest columns:
The team has to have been good, and I have to remember watching them. So, as above, that's 1992 on. But rather than just making it a list of the 10 best teams of the last 24 seasons, I want to focus on teams that I enjoyed watching for some reason or another. In part 1A, I talked about the 2004 Boston Red Sox, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2015 Toronto Blue Jays, 1999 New York Mets, and 2001 Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox and Diamondbacks were teams that I only really followed for 1 series or so in the playoffs, but with great delight, and both won the World Series in those seasons. The Jays, Mets and Mariners were teams that had good seasons and fun playoff runs, but ultimately lost in their respective League Championship Series round in year. In part 1B, I talked about the Giants of 2010, 2012, and 2014. Starring Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and a cast of other fun characters, the Giants have been my favourite (alone or tied) franchise of just about the last decade. A lot of their players will end up on the "modern" half of my favourite players list, which will come next. In this part, I'll be focused on the teams that got me started with my love of baseball (and who will populate a good portion of my "older" half of the favourite players list). It's throwback time. 2d. 1992 Toronto Blue Jays The first team I followed, they get bumped to a second place tie because my memories of the next year are stronger, but this group helped build the foundation. And while I didn't watch much of them live, I've watched that video linked above without exaggeration probably 30 or more times. There are likely to be fewer overall links in the next two, just owing to their age, but if you have an hour to spare and love nostalgia, 90's hairdos on fans in the stands, and the Blue Jays, click on the link at this title and the next one. The Jays came into the 1992 season with a strong recent history. They had won the American League East in 1991 and 1989, and won at least 85 games every year since 1983, including a team record 99 in 1985. They had a good mix of young and veteran players in the lineup.
In the ALCS, they would face the Oakland Athletics, who had won the American League pennant each year from 1988-1990, beating the Blue Jays in 1989 on the way to winning the World Series. The Athletics had star power in Bash Brothers Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco and leadoff hitter extraordinaire Rickey Henderson, and strong pitching from Mike Moore, Dave Stewart, Bob Welch, and Dennis Eckersley, among others. Eckersley would win the Cy Young Award and the American League MVP that year thanks to his 51 saves and 1.91 ERA, though looking back with advanced metrics would show that to be suspect choices on both fronts. In game 1, Morris got the ball against Dave Stewart. He was roughed up in the second inning, as McGwire and Terry Steinbach went deep against him to give the A's a 3-0 lead. The Jays would answer with solo home runs from Borders in the 5th and Winfield in the 6th, and then a run-scoring single from Olerud in the 8th. Morris would come back out for the 9th inning, and gave up a leadoff homer to Harold Baines. He would complete the game, but the Jays were shut down in the bottom of the 9th and took the loss 4-3. In game 2, Cone would face Mike Moore, who gave up a 2 run homer to Kelly Gruber in the 5th inning to give the Jays a 2-0 lead. The Jays would add a run in the 7th, and Cone came out after allowing a leadoff triple in the 9th, which would then score Oakland's only run before Tom Henke closed the door on a 3-1 victory. Game 3 starter Juan Guzman had earned the only Jays victory in the 1991 playoffs, and would go 6 strong innings, allowing just 2 runs, as home runs from Maldonado and Alomar helped the Jays to a 3-2 lead. After Manny Lee tripled in 2 runs in the 7th, the A's would get 2 back against Duane Ward in the bottom of the inning, but the Jays countered with another run in the 8th. The A's answered back in the bottom of the 8th with one more to draw to 6-5, but the Blue Jays would score a final run in the top of the 9th before Tom Henke completed his 5-out save to finish a 7-5 victory. In game 4, Jack Morris would get hit hard, leaving after 3.1 innings with the Jays trailing 5-1. Todd Stottlemyre would go 3.2 innings and allow just one more, but the Jays trailed 6-1 going into the 8th inning. After an Alomar single against starter Bob Welch, the A's turned to the bullpen, but Jeff Parrett would give up back-to-back singles to bring the Jays a run closer. In came Eckersley, who the Jays greeted with 2 more hits to come closer at 6-4, but he would get the next three hitters to end the inning. On to the 9th, and after Devon White led off with a single, Alomar would take Eckersley deep to tie the game a 6. The two teams would battle into the 11th, when Pat Borders brought home Derek Bell with a sacrifice fly, and the Jays would take the game 7-6, leading the series now 3 games to 1. Game 5 saw David Cone come back on short rest, and this combined with Morris' game 5 performance probably helped Cito Gaston's decision to go back to a 4-man rotation, as Cone was rocked for 6 runs in 4 innings including a Ruben Sierra home run. The Jays would score just twice against Dave Stewart, who pitched a complete game for a 6-2 Oakland victory. Back in Toronto, Juan Guzman would get the ball for game 6. Guzman would strike out 8 over 7 innings of 1-run ball and the Jays would chase starter Mike Moore in the bottom of the 3rd after scoring their 6th run of the game. They would cruise to a 9-2 victory, and the first World Series that would include games outside the US. Roberto Alomar would win series MVP with a .423 average, 2 home runs, and 5 stolen bases. The World Series would match the Jays up with the now two-time reigning National League Champion Atlanta Braves. The Braves had the top pitching staff in the National League, featuring 26-year-old Tom Glavine (20-8, 2.76 ERA), 25-year-old John Smoltz (15-12, 2.85 ERA, and an NL-high 215 strikeouts), and 22-year-old Steve Avery (11-11, 3.20 ERA). They had also led the NL in home runs and slugging, and scored the third most runs in the league. Jack Morris would get the ball for the Jays in game 1, and he had shut the Braves out for 10 innings in their most recent World Series game, number 7 in 1991. When Joe Carter homered against Glavine in the 4th, Braves fans had to be feeling a little bit nervous. But, to quote the World Series film "...fame, and scoreless innings streaks, are fleeting." In the 6th inning, Morris would falter, giving up a 3-run home run to catcher Damon Berryhill. Glavine would finish the game allowing only 4 hits overall, as the Braves took a 3-1 victory. In game 2, David Cone would return to the mound, facing off against John Smoltz. Cone would struggle somewhat, giving up 5 hits, 5 walks, 4 stolen bases, and 4 runs in 4.1 innings. Smoltz would pitch well, coming out in the 8th after the Jays narrowed the score to 4-3. In the top of the 9th inning, closer Jeff Reardon allowed a walk to pinch hitter Derek Bell before backup catcher Ed Sprague rocked him for a pinch-hit, go ahead home run. Tom Henke would close out the game in the bottom of the 9th as Kelly Gruber poked the Braves fans with a mock tomahawk chop. Game 3 featured the first World Series game on non-American soil. The Jays sent young fireballer Juan Guzman to the mound against young lefty Steve Avery, and both pitchers were locked in early. Through the first 3 innings, each team managed just 1 hit, and both pitchers were looking very good. In the top of the 4th inning, Guzman gave up back-to-back singles to Deion Sanders and Terry Pendleton, bringing David Justice to the plate. Justice would hit the ball deep to center field, where Devon White made a leaping catch against the wall. Pendleton had been running, but Sanders returned to second base, crossing Pendleton, making him the second out of the inning. Gruber tried to run down Sanders, but just missed the tag according to the umpires, losing a chance at an amazing triple play. Joe Carter would then make the Braves regret the miscue in the bottom of the 4th with a home run off of Avery to give the Jays a 1-0 lead. Guzman would hold the Braves scoreless until the top of the 6th, when Justice would knock in Sanders with a single to tie the game at 1. In the top of the 8th, with Guzman still in the game, the Braves would take the lead after an error by Kelly Gruber allowed Otis Nixon to reach and he was knocked in 4 batters later by Lonnie Smith. Gruber, who hadn't had a hit in the playoffs since game 2 of the ALCS, would lead off the bottom of the 8th with one of just 2 hits he would pick up in the World Series, tying the game with a long home run off of Steve Avery. (By the way, if you're thinking that starting pitchers were left in a lot longer in the early 90's than the last couple of years, you're absolutely right). After Duane Ward held the Braves scoreless in the 9th, Jimy Williams, who had replaced Bobby Cox after he was thrown from the game in the top of the 9th following a close strikeout, throw-out double play, would get very busy in the bottom of the 9th. Avery would come back out and allow a leadoff single to Roberto Alomar. Cox brought in right-hander Mark Wohlers to face Joe Carter, but after Alomar immediately stole second base, Wohlers would intentionally walk Carter. Dave Winfield dropped down a sacrifice bunt (sigh), and Cox would bring out left-hander Mike Stanton to face the left-handed hitting John Olerud. The Jays brought in game 2 hero Ed Sprague, but he was intentionally walked to load the bases. Closer Jeff Reardon, who had allowed the game-winning home run in game 2, would come in to face Candy Maldonado, who had struggled against Reardon in his career. This time, on an 0-2 pitch, the Candy-man would lift a Reardon pitch over Otis Nixon's head in center field for a walk-off single. On to game 4, where the Jays would bring out left-hander Jimmy Key to face Braves ace Tom Glavine. Key would pitch extremely well, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits over 7.2 innings. Glavine would complete the game again, but this time took only 8 innings to do so, as a 3rd inning Pat Borders home run and a 7th inning Devon White single gave the Jays a 2-1 victory, and a 3 games to 1 series lead. It was another low-scoring game, as Glavine allowed 10 baserunners over 8 innings, and Key allowed just 5 in his time on the mound. The combined score through 4 games had the Jays scoring 11 runs, and the Braves with 10. The Jays would come in to game 5 with a chance to win the series. Their ace in name Jack Morris had the ball against John Smoltz, and the Jays were hoping that his last 3 postseason starts were not a harbinger. Morris gave up a run in the first on a double by Terry Pendleton, but the Jays would get it back in the second when Pat Borders hit a double of his own off of Smoltz to bring Olerud home. In the top of the 4th, David Justice would lead off with a home run against Morris, but Borders would knock in Olerud again in the bottom of the 4th to tie the game back up. Morris would start the top of the 5th off well enough, getting a strikeout and a groundout before giving up a single to Otis Nixon. A stolen base and an RBI single by Deion Sanders gave the Braves a 3-2 lead, but there were still two outs. After Terry Pendleton hit a ground-rule double, the hot-hitting Justice was intentionally walked to face the "ice-cold Lonnie Smith". Morris would get the count to 1-2 before throwing what would be his last pitch of the postseason, as Smith turned his offering around for a grand slam, giving the Braves a 7-2 lead, and ultimately a 7-2 victory in the highest scoring game of the series. Game 6 was back in Atlanta, and David Cone would face Steve Avery. Cone would pitch well, allowing just 1 run over 6 innings, while Avery was pulled after 4 innings, having allowed 2 runs including a home run by Maldonado. The Jays bullpen would get the ball to Tom Henke in the 9th, where the Braves would stage a rally to tie the game at 2. Neither team scored in the 10th, but in the top of the 11th, the Jays would put two men on for Dave Winfield, facing Charlie Leibrandt with a chance at the lead, and Winfield would line a double into left field, bringing both runners home. In the bottom of the 11th, Jimmy Key would come back out, having picked up 2 outs in the 10th. After a single and an error put two runners on, a bunt and a groundout would bring one runner home, bringing Otis Nixon to the plate with a runner on 3rd and 2 outs. The young Mike Timlin would come out to face Nixon, and when Nixon dropped down a bunt, Timlin would jump on it and just throw him out at 1st, where Joe Carter started jumping in celebration after making the catch. The Jays had climbed the summit, and the Braves would have to wait at least one more year for their title (three years, as it turned out). The Series MVP went to Pat Borders, who had hit just .242 during the season, but hit .318 with one home run in the ALCS, and .450 with a home run and 3 doubles in the World Series. Now all they had to do was try to win it all again... 1. 1993 Toronto Blue Jays (see the whole season story here) In 1993 the Jays came back strong, having won 2 straight division titles plus the '92 World Series. The cast of characters had some new faces, and some maturing returning players.
Their pitching staff featured some new faces, including some young blood.
In the ALCS, they would match up with the Chicago White Sox, who featured MVP and future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas and American League Cy Young Award winner Jack McDowell led the American League's top pitching staff with 3 excellent pitchers under 23 years old in Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez, and Jason Bere. In game 1, Guzman and McDowell would face off, and the first 3 innings were well pitched, as the Jays went into the top of the 4th with the score tied at 0. McDowell would start to struggle against the Jays lineup, as Ed Sprague knocked in 2 runs with a triple. Guzman would would give the lead back in the bottom of the 4th as the White Sox scored 3 runs after an error, a walk and a pair of hits. In the top of the 5th, the top of the order would get to McDowell, as hits from White, Carter, Olerud and Molitor put the Jays in front 5-3. McDowell would stay in the game until the 7th inning, coming out after a 2-run home run by Molitor before back-to-back singles by Fernandez and Sprague. Guzman would get the win despite walking 8 White Sox in 6 innings as the Jays would take game 1 by a 7-3 score. Game 2 starter Dave Stewart came into the game 6-0 in his ALCS career, including 3 wins against Toronto in 1989 and 1992. Facing Alex Fernandez, both teams would score 1 run in the first inning before the pitchers settled in to a groove. In the 4th, Fernandez was bitten by the bottom of the Jays order, as 2-out singles by Tony Fernandez and Pat Borders would give the Jays a 3-1 lead. Stewart would roll until the 6th inning when he loaded the bases with none out, escaping with no runs allowed after a shallow fly ball to center, a popup, and a groundout which he would run to first base himself. The Jays bullpen would shut the White Sox down for the last 3 innings, picking up a 3-1 victory and improving Stewart's record to 7-0 in the ALCS. In game 3, the Jays would struggle against lefthander Wilson Alvarez, who would allow just 1 run in 9 innings. Pat Hentgen would struggle, allowing 6 runs in 3 innings as the Jays lost 6-1. In game 4, Jason Bere was chased after 2.1 innings, and the Jays would end up with 4 runs. Todd Stottlemyre, however, would get rocked by the White Sox including 2 home runs, one of which was by Lance Johnson, who hadn't homered in 579 regular season plate appearances. The Jays would drop the game 7-4 to tie the series at 2 games to 2. The White Sox came into game 5 hoping that McDowell could improve on his game 1 performance, but he would be taken out after 2.1 innings after the Jays scored runs in each of the first 3 innings. Guzman would turn his performance up a notch, giving up just 3 hits and one run through 7 innings with 6 strikeouts on the way to a 5-3 victory. In game 6, Stewart would outduel Fernandez again, going 7.1 innings of 2-run ball to win the series for the Jays to improve to 8-0 in his LCS career and win MVP of the series. Duane Ward would finish the series with his second save, though he had struggled in 4 games, allowing 4 hits, 4 walks and 3 runs in 4.2 innings. The Jays opponent this year would be the worst-to-first Philadelphia Phillies, who had beaten the heavily favoured Atlanta Braves in the LCS behind Curt Schilling, Mitch Williams, Lenny Dykstra, Darren Daulton and others. The Phillies were a wild bunch with beards and mullets, and had managed to beat the 104-win Braves, preventing them from avenging their 1992 World Series loss. Game 1 featured Phillies ace Curt Schilling against Jays fireballer Juan Guzman. Schilling had been NLCS MVP and would make a career of excellent playoff pitching including with the number 9 and 10 teams on this list. Guzman would struggle in the first, giving up 2 runs around 3 strikeouts. In the 2nd, Schilling would find out how dangerous the Jays lineup could be, as Carter, Olerud and Molitor would single and score 2 runs for the Jays to tie the game. Both teams would score in the third to keep the game tied, and then another run each in the 5th including a huge home run by Devon White. In the bottom of the 6th, the Jays would take the lead for good on an upper deck home run by John Olerud. Schilling would remain in the game to start the 7th, but singles by Borders and Henderson would be followed by doubles from White and Alomar to give the Jays an 8-4 lead, ultimately leading to an 8-5 victory for the Jays. In game 2, the Jays would face another tough left-hander, with Dave Stewart facing off against Terry Mulholland. Stewart would struggle in the 5th, as the Phillies would score 2 runs on two walks and two singles followed by a 3-run homer by Jim Eisenreich. The Jays would score 2 in the 5th on a Joe Carter home run, plus one more in the 6th. Lenny Dykstra would add to the Phillies' lead with a home run in the 7th off of lefty Tony Castillo, and the Jays would ultimately drop the game by a 6-4 score. In game 3, the Phillies would put another lefty on the mound in Danny Jackson. The Jays would decide to play Molitor at first base in place of John Olerud, planning to sit Molitor for the next game (though they would ultimately decide to play Molitor at third base in games 4 and 5). Molitor would make the decision look good right away with a two-run triple in the first as the Jays jumped out to a 3-0 lead after the first inning. He would homer in the third to increase the lead to 4-0. After each team scored in the 6th, the Jays would score 3 times in the 7th to increase their lead to 8-1. They would add 2 more runs in the 9th, as Molitor finished with 3 hits, 3 runs, and 3 driven in in a 10-3 victory for the Jays. Game 4 featured both teams' 4th starters, as Todd Stottlemyre faced Tommy Greene. With both Olerud and Molitor in the lineup, the Jays lineup would batter Greene for 3 runs in the first inning. Stottlemyre would give the lead back and more, as a bases-loaded triple by Milt Thompson gave the Phillies a 4-3 lead. After Stottlemyre started the top of the second by somehow drawing a walk against Greene, he would be thrown out in a baserunning miscue that left him bloodied, but he stayed in the game. He returned the favour in the bottom of the 2nd by allowing a single to Greene, but Lenny Dykstra would make him pay with a 2-run homer to give the Phillies a 6-3 lead. In the third, the Jays chased Greene from the game with a walk and three straight hits, ultimately scoring 4 runs to take the lead again 7-6. Now facing Al Leiter, the Phillies would tie the game in the 4th before scoring 5 times in the 5th on home runs by Dykstra and Darren Daulton to go up 12-7. The Jays would score twice in the top of the 6th to pull to 12-9, but the Phillies would score runs in the 6th and 7th to increase their lead to 14-9. In the 8th, the Jays would start the inning with the middle of their order, as singles by Carter and Olerud followed by a Molitor double got the score to 14-10. Phillies closer Mitch Williams would come in and allow a single to Tony Fernandez and a walk to Borders before striking out Ed Sprague for the second out. The score was 14-11 as Rickey Henderson came to the plate with the bases loaded. A single by Henderson and a triple by White would give the Jays the lead for the last time, as the 9th inning was the only scoreless inning of the game. The Jays had won a wild, rain-filled 15-14 game, the most combined runs in a playoff game until the Red Sox beat Cleveland 23-7 in a 1999 Division Series game. In game 5, both teams brought exhausted bullpens in, with Jim Fregosi threatening to ride Schilling "until his arm fell off". Schilling would dominate the Jays, shutting them out on 5 hits over 147 pitches. Guzman would pitch well, allowing 2 runs in 7 innings, but Schilling could not be denied, and the series would return to Toronto for game 6, giving the Jays a chance to win the World Series on their home field. In game 6, the Jays offense woke up against Mulholland in the first, as hits by Molitor, Olerud and Alomar plus a sacrifice fly from Joe Carter staked them to an early 3-0 lead. The two pitchers settled down until the 4th inning, when both teams scored runs to increase the score to 4-1. After Molitor homered in the 5th, Stewart entered the 7th with a 5-1 lead. A walk, a single, and a 3-run home run from Lenny Dykstra would chase Stewart and trim the Jays lead to 5-4. Reliever Danny Cox came in, but was unable to stop the bleeding, as three singles and a walk chased him and tied the game before Al Leiter would come in and allow the go ahead run on a sacrifice fly. The Jays would go quietly in the 7th inning, but 2 walks and a hit batter in the 8th would send them to the 9th inning with the top of the order due up. The Phillies brought in mercurial closer Mitch Williams, who had saved 43 games in the regular season, but had blown 2 saves in the NLCS plus the wild finish in game 4. Williams would walk Rickey Henderson to lead the inning off, but then retired Devon White on a fly ball to left. Paul Molitor would then single for his third hit of the game, putting runners on first and second with one out. Molitor would win series MVP after after hitting .500 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 home runs, scoring 10 runs and driving in 8 with a .500/.571/1.000 batting line as the Jays would end up with 45 runs in the series. Joe Carter stepped to the plate, in a moment that would become legend. After Williams worked the count to 2-2, Williams would throw a pitch low and in, that Carter would turn on. "Well hit down the left field line" became "Touch 'em all Joe, you'll never hit a bigger home run in your life!" For just the second time in history, the World Series ended on a walk-off home run, as Joe Carter leaped and celebrated around the bases, part of the final play of the World Series for the second year in a row. The Jays were back-to-back champions, the whole country celebrated, and I was hooked. It is almost hard to imagine another team capturing the imagination of an entire nation like the Jays did in the early 90's. They were the first team to draw 4 million fans, which they managed in 1991, 1992 and 1993. A taste of that passion was rekindled in 2015 as they finally made their way back to the playoffs for the first time since that epic run. With some sustained winning, they could be a cultural giant again. I'll remember every big moment from those World Series highlight videos for years, having watched them over and over again, almost feeling like I was at every one of the games. For a young fan there's a lot to be said for watching an exciting, winning team. Here's hoping that the Jays build on last year's momentum and build a whole new generations of kids loving baseball again. Next in this series, I'll write about a bunch of my favourite players from 1992-2003, including several of the key players from these Blue Jays teams. I'll probably throw up a links post again too, as Spring Training is approaching fast! As promised, I wanted to look at the Toronto Blue Jays offseason moves for the upcoming season. They are due to have pitchers and catchers report for spring training in exactly 4 weeks. This might mean that they have another move in them, but they might also be done. For now I'll take the perspective that this might be it. I'll look position by position and whether things have changed (and whether they should).
C - Russell Martin, backed up by Josh Thole, possibly A.J. Jimenez. Martin was one of their better players overall last year, though he wore down a little during the season, as catchers can do. They lost backup Dioner Navarro to free agency, but that shouldn't affect their team performance too much. Fangraphs' ZiPS projections (which happened before some other moves) sees them getting about 4 WAR from the catching position, which is very good. 1B - Justin Smoak and Chris Colabello. Last year this was one of the weaker links overall in the lineup, and that figures to continue at this point. The two combined for about 1.5 WAR (with Colabello playing some time in the outfield), and projections see them combining at around 1 WAR this year. This could have been a spot in the lineup to make a bit of a splash, but their offense is probably not a problem again this year. 2B - Devon Travis and Ryan Goins. Travis is probably the better player overall, but evidently he will be kept out recovering from surgery until at least May. Goins was a nice story last year, but is probably a bench player on a contender. Fortunately the offense overall can afford a weak spot near the bottom. This is projected at close to 0 WAR if Goins plays all season. Travis is projected at around 1.5 WAR for half a season. 3B - Josh Donaldson. The returning MVP is going to arbitration with the Blue Jays again. I'm not quite sure I understand why, but I don't make those decisions. He'll be 30 this year, but he has a very strong 3-year track record at this point, and he's projected for 6-7 WAR, which would be best on the team again. SS - Troy Tulowitzki. A full season of Tulo (if he can get there) would be worth in the 3-5 WAR range, which would be great for this lineup. Getting that much out of the left side of the infield helps make up for the right side a little bit. LF - Michael Saunders, Dalton Pompey, Ezequiel Carrera, somebody as yet unsigned?? - This is now the mystery spot in the lineup after trading Ben Revere. I think the team hopes that Saunders will be healthy and Pompey will be ready. If so, they could be a good combination for 2-3 WAR between them. Carrera is probably one of their main bench guys. CF - Kevin Pillar - Defensive metrics aren't always completely reliable year to year, but Pillar provided a lot of value from that end last year, to where he's projected in the 3 WAR range this year, based mostly on his defense. RF - Jose Bautista - Despite being 35 years old, Bautista has been pretty consistent when healthy over the last 6 years with Toronto. He's projected in the 4 WAR range, pretty close to what he was last year, and the team has to make a decision on his future as he hits free agency after this year. DH - Edwin Encarnacion - Another free agent to be, another prediction of 3-4 WAR, 30+ home runs. Offense overall - This group is projected at nearly 30 WAR, which would have been third best in the majors last year, when they led both leagues with 34.7 fWAR from their hitters. The only real change from the end of last year was to trade away left fielder Ben Revere, and that doesn't figure to affect their bottom line too much. SP - Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Drew Hutchison, Jesse Chavez, Aaron Sanchez? - The new face in this group actually isn't that new, as J.A. Happ was with the Jays from 2012-2014, but they're hopeful that his performance last year is closer to his current talent level than the previous 3 years. Stroman is projected at 3-4 WAR, but nobody else in the group is projected above 2 right now. If they bring Sanchez into the rotation, maybe he will surprise, and Roberto Osuna is also a possibility there. Roberto Hernandez and Brad Penny have been invited to spring training, but if they play prominent roles in this season, that will probably not bode well for this team. RP - Drew Storen, Roberto Osuna?, Brett Cecil, Chad Jenkins, Aaron Loup, Bo Schultz... Bullpens are hard to predict, including who will even last in them. Storen was one of their main additions for this year, and if he pitches like he did before the ill-fated Jonathan Papelbon trade in Washington, he may help stabilize the group a little bit. If Osuna and/or Sanchez end up in the rotation that may change things here, and this is a spot where a rookie or non-roster invitee may make a bigger impact than expected. Pitching overall - It would have been nice maybe to keep David Price or pick up a bigger name than Drew Storen, but that's where the Blue Jays are for now. Fortunately, a full season of Marcus Stroman will probably be more valuable than 2 months of David Price and half a month of Stroman that they got last year, so if the rest of the group can hold water, they may improve overall just on that basis. The biggest candidate for regression by most projections is Marco Estrada, but he may be one of those weak-contact fly ball pitchers who consistently outperforms his peripherals, at least a little bit. Major moves - Trading Ben Revere for Drew Storen. Signing J.A. Happ. Losing David Price, Dioner Navarro, Mark Buehrle, Mark Lowe, LaTroy Hawkins to free agency / retirement. Outlook - Fangraphs projected standings sees the Blue Jays as 9 games worse than last year at 84-78, but tied for the second wild card spot with Seattle, and two games behind New York for the first wild card. This includes a 13-game improvement by Boston to win the division, which might be a little hopeful. I think it would have been nice to make an extra move, but for now they're not in a bad place, and maybe a move will come soon or during the season. After all, they didn't start last year with David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere, or parts of their bullpen. The Blue Jays are in a position that they haven't found themselves in in quite some time. The last time they were trying to return to the playoffs was after the 1993 season. Now, to be fair to them, they didn't definitely fail that year -- technically nobody made the playoffs, because there were no playoffs. But besides the fact that they were under .500 when the season ended, they also failed to make the playoffs in every season from 1995-2014, a 20-year span. It's been noted (but might be worth a reminder) that the Blue Jays actually had the highest payroll in the league in both 1992 and 1993, but haven't been there since.
The teams ownership has raised payroll to a fairly healthy level recently, as they came into 2015 with the 10th-ranked payroll in the league. If you take out the absurd payrolls of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees, they look pretty competitive with a number of teams in the league. As of the end of the season, they have $71 million guaranteed to 5 players for 2016 (Tulowitzi - $20M, Martin - $15M, Bautista - $14M, Dickey - $12M, Encarnacion - $10M). Three of those (Bautista, Dickey, and Encarnacion) will be free agents at the end of the 2016 season. They do have another 23 players who are arbitration or pre-arbitration eligible, including potential American League MVP Josh Donaldson. They have also given Marco Estrada a qualifying offer (which would pay him just over $15M for 1 year if he accepts, unless he signs an extension - which is apparently in discussion). With expected arbitration and minimum salaries added, their likely 2016 salary commitments so far are at just under $110M (without the Estrada contract included). There are rumours that they might be willing to raise payroll for 2016 up to the $140M range. In short, they may have room to add up to $30M in payroll at the moment. If they resign Marco Estrada to a 2 or 3 year contract for less money (say around $10M per year), then that might leave them with around $20M. These facts say that bringing back David Price is very unlikely (though not impossible. I have no inside information, I'm just reading what's online. He may indeed have loved his time in Toronto). Now, free agency isn't the only way to add players, but they don't have a lot of prospects available for high-profile trades it would seem after bringing on Price and Tulowitzki this year. Both of those, in hindsight, were very good moves. They got the Blue Jays into the playoffs, and into the second round of the playoffs. Flags fly forever, and it would have been nice to have won the World Series, but they should come into 2016 with a good chance to come back to the playoffs and maybe go further this time. In terms of needs, I think for now it will be mostly on the pitching front. They're in pretty good shape on the infield, especially if Devon Travis comes back healthy. While Ryan Goins acquitted himself well this year, he is probably not the answer as a starter, but can be an important part of the team. And the offense, obviously, wasn't the problem this year. It is possible they could try to upgrade themselves at 1B or LF, but for now those may not be at the top of their priority lists. Interesting question - will they keep Encarnacion and Bautista and try to resign them, or will they consider trading one or the other of them (at ages 33 and 35 they may be past their greatest production anyway) to a team a little more desperate for offense? On the pitching side, they can probably use some help, particularly with David Price likely to leave. If Estrada comes back, they can start with a rotation of Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, and... who? Tehy could consider moving Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna back to the rotation, but the way bullpen management has been going lately, that may be less likely. An additional relief pitcher could be helpful as well, though spending too much on one may be unwise. Remember Yovani Gallardo? He's a free agent, and could be brought in at a semi-reasonable price (and is only 29 years old). Scott Kazmir at 31, Brett Anderson at 27 are interesting names in free agency as well. Needs - Starting pitching, relief pitching Upgrades possible - Left Field, First Base I'll come back with more about the San Francisco Giants soon. This is not intended to be an in depth analysis. Only to note the following:
Imagine on July 28, when the Blue Jays had sunk to 50-51, that somebody had told you that in just under 3 months, the Jays would be starting David Price (!) in Game 6 of the ALCS (!!) with a chance to start Marcus Stroman (!!!) in Game 7 if they won.
It has felt almost disappointing to see the Jays drop 3 of the first 4 games in this series after how well they played in the last third of the season, taking the American League East for the first time in 22 years. But honestly, they've come so far, they've given us two full rounds (so far) of playoff baseball, and energized the whole country. There would be no shame in losing to Kansas City (a sentence that might have sounded strange 18 months ago) in the ALCS. They are the defending American League Champion, they had the best record in the AL this year, and they were one Madison Bumgarner from being defending World Champion. That the Jays still have more than a fighting chance to beat them is pretty awesome. Much has been written about David Price, about his use, about his playoff record. I read today that he feels like his problem in some of his playoff starts has been trying to be a little too perfect, make his pitches be a little bit too fine. He is one of the top pitchers in the league, and if he can just relax and pitch his game tomorrow, the Jays would have every chance to win, and then have a rematch of Game 3 to move on. It's hard to win on the road, and Kansas City has been great at home, but the Jays have shown resilience so far in the playoffs, and are now 4-0 when facing elimination. I hope they can make that 6-0 by the end of Saturday, but either way, Canada will remember this team, and they'll be back next year, to defend whatever they have accomplished. It's been a couple of days, so I'm going to start with a selection of good links for this week.
Quickly, we might as well acknowledge the fact that the Blue Jays are in trouble. Losing the first 2 games on the road wasn't too big a deal, especially when they won game 3 at home. Losing game 4 by 12 runs in a game where their utility infielder pitched in the 9th inning... that's not a great look. Their hitting has struggled outside of yesterday, including many swings and misses against a pitcher today who doesn't usually get a lot of them. Their bullpen seems to have 2 guys in it who Gibbons trusts, although Hendriks should be back on that list (but not available tomorrow I'm sure). Of course, I don't concede the series just yet. Marco Estrada pitched well enough in game 1 that I trust him to do the same or better tomorrow, and if the Jays can score a little bit, they have a chance. They would then need to win 2 more on the road, but would get a chance to do so with what should be their two best pitchers. And, as somebody pointed out on Twitter, this could just be an elaborate revenge plot for 1985, when the Royals came back from a 3-1 deficit including the final 2 games on the road to beat Toronto in the ALCS. They added to that by coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series too. It's not over, and momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher. Don't give up just yet. I spent a chunk of yesterday's post going over game 5 of the Jays-Rangers series, and, in particular, inning 7 of game 5, and, in particular the moment after the count went to 2-2 with 2 outs in the top of the 7th to the 3rd pitch thrown to the 6th batter of the bottom of the 7th inning. The thing is, a lot of other people did too, and there are lots of fun perspectives. So far I've just been doing links once a week, but that game and that inning have enough links already that they're worth sharing if you haven't found them.
Edit - I've been adding new links when I've found them, I'll try to note that.
Enjoy everybody. Round two starts tomorrow. I hope it does go 7. I hope every series does. All the baseball! Wow. Guys (and girls)... wow. Did you see what happened? I guess we might as well go over the craziness, because, some things happened today.
For the first 6 innings of game 5 of the Toronto-Texas series, things were pretty close. Marcus Stroman had been excellent, minus a fat pitch to Shin-Soo Choo in the 3rd inning. Cole Hamels had been excellent until a fat pitch that Edwin Encarnacion destroyed (and boy did he know it) in the 6th inning. Then the 7th inning happened. Go ahead and read Grant Brisbee's description of it, because he does it as much justice as anybody can. Twitter was going berserk. The shortened version of it: Rougned Odor reached to lead off the 7th for the Rangers. He moved to 2nd on a bunt, then to 3rd on a groundout. Then, Russell Martin went to throw the ball back to Aaron Sanchez when... something happened? There was a lot of confusion as the home plate umpire initially ruled the ball dead when it bounced off of Choo's bat on the throw, but then after some questions from the Rangers' manager and a conference of the umpires, they awarded Odor home plate (and the go ahead run), and Toronto fan's lost their minds. It was ugly, and I hope not an indicator of what Canadians are like (although the way Vancouver behaved after losing a Stanley Cup... I don't know). (By the way, that's one of the first times Harold Reynolds was right about something, which Twitter also enjoyed.) So Toronto trailed 3-2 on a very controversial call going into the bottom of the 7th. This is when things went from strange to truly bizarre. First, Russell Martin reached on an error by SS Elvis Andrus. Then, Kevin Pillar grounded to 1B Mitch Moreland, who bounced his throw to Andrus for the attempted force, and both runners were safe on the error. Martin was then replaced with a pinch runner, which came in handy when Dalton Pompey raced to third on a bunt by Ryan Goins, which 3B Adrian Beltre threw to Andrus, who dropped the ball again. After Ben Revere grounded to Moreland for a force at home, Josh Donaldson popped the ball just over Rougned Odor's head for an RBI forceout, when Revere was thrown out at second after retreating before the ball cleared Odor. The game was tied with two outs. And then Jose Bautista stepped up. People, bat flips are awesome. And this made the fans go even more berserk, which led to Encarnacion trying to shush them, which led to Rangers P Sam Dyson getting mad because he thought EE was trying to rile them up (which, really? I mean, really?), which led to a bench-clearing... something (those are much less awesome, and mostly just dumb). Anyway, this led to Mark Buehrle getting ejected, a fan getting thrown out or arrested, and then Sam Dyson slapped Troy Tulowitzki on the behind, as players will do, but usually teammates (but whatever), and this led to another clearing of the benches. To quote Grant Brisbee directly: "The baseball gods are on peyote and throwing flaming furniture off the roof, and there isn't a damned thing we can do about it." The rest of the game was relatively calm, though 20-year-old Roberto Osuna did come in to a 1 out, 2 on situation and shut the door in the 8th, then slammed it in the 9th, and boy that kid looks like he has a future. While it wasn't quite the easy victory in the LDS that I thought it might be, the Jays were able to pull it out, and now they get to go back to the ALCS for the first time in 22 years. And they will meet the same franchise they played the very first time they made the playoffs 30 years ago. While the Royals series overall was pretty dramatic (and their game 4 had a whole bunch of other craziness including that blown 4-run 8th-inning lead by the Astros), in the end they put away game 5 in the 5th inning. Johnny Cueto was everything the Royals hoped for when they traded for him in late July. I mean, he was really really good. Royals superfan Rany Jazayerli tweeted "It's taken Johnny Cueto less than two hours to undo all the damage from his last two months." He made exactly 2 mistakes over 8 innings and 92 pitches, allowing a single and a 2-run home run in the 2nd inning. No other Astro reached base against him, and the Royals got 1 back in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, and 3 more in the 8th. After not reaching the playoffs for 29 years, the Royals have gotten back to at least the ALCS for the second year in a row. And for the second year in a row, I'm hoping that the team I'm rooting for might end their season before its ultimate goal. But first, let's preview! The preview! Toronto Blue Jays (93-69, 3-2 in ALDS) vs Kansas City Royals (95-67, 3-2 in ALDS) I'll forgo giving the full stats again since they're all in the ALDS previews, but I'll at least compare the positions a bit and give some stats from the first round. C - Russell Martin (3/15, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 R, 1 RBI) & Dioner Navarro (1/5, 1 2B, 1 R) (TOR) vs Salvador Perez (KC) (4/14, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 3 R, 4 RBI) (KCR) Russell Martin had 15-30 minutes of worrying about costing the Blue Jays the series after that play in the top of the 7th inning, but after getting picked up by Joey Bats, all is good in his world. Both catchers are very important to their teams, though Perez has shown a bit of an ability to come up big in the playoffs the last couple of years. Advantage - Blue Jays (believe in defense and eye) 1B - Chris Colabello (6/16, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 3 R, 2 RBI) & Justin Smoak (0/6, 3 K) (TOR) vs Eric Hosmer (4/21, 1 HR, 4 K, 3 R, 5 RBI) (KCR) The Jays finally decided that Justin Smoak was not going to cut it in a starting lineup against some tough left-handed pitching. Although the Royals are entirely right-handed with their starting staff, I wouldn't be surprised to see Colabello get some more playing time after hitting well in the opening series. Still though, Hosmer is probably the more consistent player here overall, including on the field. Advantage - Royals 2B - Ryan Goins (0/17, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 R) (TOR) vs Ben Zobrist (6/18, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 R, 2 RBI) (KCR) It is a good thing Goins keeps coming up huge on defense, because he was a disaster at the plate in the first round. But his defense is very important to the Blue Jays, and with a high-contact team like Kansas City, that could become even more crucial during this round. Still, Zobrist can really hit, and 0/17 is a bad look. Advantage - Royals 3B - Josh Donaldson (4/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 5 R, 4 RBI) (TOR) vs Mike Moustakas (2/18, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 R) (KCR) The probably AL MVP made his hits count, picking up 11 bases on 4 hits, and tying up game 5 with the bloop fielder's choice in the 7th. He also played well on defense. Moustakas had a bit of a tough round by the numbers, but is still a good part of Kansas City's lineup overall. Advantage - Blue Jays SS - Troy Tulowitzki (2/21, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K, 2 R, 4 RBI) (TOR) vs Alcides Escobar (6/21, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 K, 3 R) (KCR) Tulo seemed to struggle to find his timing for a lot of this series, but during a tight game 3 in Texas, with Toronto hoping to grab a win after dropping the first two at home, he came up big with a long 3-run homer in the 6th to help put the game away. Meanwhile, Escobar hit well atop the Royals lineup despite all previous evidence suggesting he should be much lower in the order. Still, I'm going with overall track record here. Advantage - Blue Jays LF - Ben Revere (7/23, 1 BB, 3 R, 1 RBI) (TOR) vs Alex Gordon (4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 R, 2 RBI) (KCR) Revere was helpful in some key situations late in games when a strikeout would have been crippling, as he managed to avoid going down on strikes throughout the series. His high contact approach would fit in well with the Royals lineup. Alex Gordon has been one of Kansas City's best players for quite a while now, and the Jays should be careful of him when they are on the basepaths. Advantage - Royals CF - Kevin Pillar (7/21, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 K, 3 R, 4 RBI) (TOR) vs Lorenzo Cain (5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, 5 R, 2 RBI) (KCR) In a year without Josh Donaldson and Mike Trout, Lorenzo Cain might have been a very good MVP candidate. And in a year without Kevin Kiermaier and specific awards for each of the 3 outfield positions, Lorenzo Cain and Kevin Pillar might both have warranted Gold Gloves for their outfield work this year. But life isn't always fair, and it certainly won't seem fair for hitters on both sides trying to find the gaps in the outfield in this series. Advantage - Royals RF - Jose Bautista (6/22, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 3 R, 5 RBI) (TOR) vs Alex Rios (4/14, 2 2B, 3 BB, 5 K, 3 R, 2 RBI) (KCR) Once a minor star for the Blue Jays, Alex Rios' star has fallen quite a bit over the last few years, and there are many who would rather he not be in the Royals lineup at all. Still, he did drive in the go ahead run in their clinching game 5, and has not been a total zero at the plate in this series. But track record is track record, and this one isn't close. Advantage - Blue Jays DH - Edwin Encarnacion (6/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 1 K, 3 R, 3 RBI) (TOR) vs Kendrys Morales (5/19, 3 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 R, 6 RBI) (KCR) Morales was a controversial signing in the offseason, but has been big for the Royals all year, and during the first round of the playoffs. He is a dangerous switch hitter who Jays pitchers will have to watch out for, but he can be pitched around. Encarnacion has been one of the top hitters in the American League over the past 3 years, and gives the Royals no breaks through the middle of the Jays lineup. Advantage - Blue Jays Bench - Ezequiel Carrera (0/1), Cliff Pennington (0/1), Dalton Pompey, Navarro, Smoak (TOR) vs Paulo Orlando (0/1), Jarrod Dyson (0/1, 2 SB), Drew Butera, Terrance Gore (1 SB) (KCR) You're more likely to see somebody for the Blue Jays actually get an at bat or two (or a start, in Navarro's case), where the Royals are more likely to provide pinch running with the Dyson-Gore combination. Advantage - Blue Jays SP - David Price (10.0 IP, 11 H, 8 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 7 K), Marcus Stroman (13.0 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 9 K), Marco Estrada (6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 K), R.A. Dickey (4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 K) (TOR) vs Johnny Cueto (14.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 13 K), Yordano Ventura (7.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K), Edinson Volquez (5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 8 K), Kris Medlen (DNP) (KCR) The Royals didn't use their 4th starter after a rain delay in game 1 limited Yordano Ventura to 2 innings in the game, letting him come back on "short rest" for game 4. Meanwhile, Jays game 1 starter David Price struggled, and came back in game 4 to pitch 3 innings of relief. It isn't certain who will start game 1 for either team, though Marco Estrada has been rumoured. David Price would be on 3 days rest since his relief outing, which should be more than enough for having thrown 50 pitches. Either way, Marcus Stroman is likely to pitch game 3 at home, with R.A. Dickey going for game 4. As mentioned above, Johnny Cueto finally looked like the ace the Royals were hoping for. Ventura and Volquez were both decent without being dominant, and Kris Medlen did not appear in the first round. Advantage - Blue Jays RP - Roberto Osuna (5.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K), Aaron Sanchez (5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), Mark Lowe (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K), Aaron Loup (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K), Liam Hendriks (0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K), Ryan Tepera (DNP) (TOR) vs Wade Davis (4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K), Kelvin Herrera (3.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K), Ryan Madson (3.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 HR, 0 BB, 7 K), Luke Hochevar (2.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K), Chris Young (4.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K), Danny Duffy (0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K), Franklin Morales (DNP) (KCR) This would seem like an advantage for Kansas City coming into the playoffs, but one of their big three (Ryan Madson) struggled a lot against the Royals, while youngsters Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez were brilliant in their playoff introductions (11 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 12 K), eating up most of the relief innings after Brett Cecil went down with a torn calf muscle. His loss is a blow to the Jays, especially with the tough left-handed bats in the Royals lineup. If the series goes deep, it will be interesting to see how Gibbons manages workloads. Thoughts also are with Aaron Loup as he had to miss games 4 and 5 for a much-more-important-than-baseball family emergency. Advantage - Royals As you might expect with two teams that had such evenly matched records, this one is pretty tough to call. Joe Posnanski made the point during the last week of the season that should these teams meet in the ALCS, home field might play into it a lot, as both teams played much better in their home parks (Toronto 53-28 vs 40-41, Kansas City 51-30 vs 44-37). The season series was pretty close, as Toronto took 4 of 7, going 1-2 in Kansas City in early July, then 3-1 in Toronto July 30-August 2 as they remade their team and started on their journey to the playoffs. I think this will be a well-matched series, but I like that Toronto is tough to strike out (thought not quite as much as Kansas City), but tends to hit for a lot more power, and I like their starting rotation because I don't think David Price's struggles will continue. Prediction - Blue Jays in 7 Playoff baseball is just the best. Even better, when you maximize the amount of it. In the first round, of a possible 20 games, by the end of tomorrow, we will have seen 19 games. Three of the four series are going the full 5 games, and in the other, the only team to win 100 games of course lost in 4 games to a team that hasn't won a World Series in 107 years and had never clinched a playoff series in their 99-year-old stadium.
Jays fans came into the first round pretty confident, given the team's performance, and a lot of prognostications (including this rather inexpert one) that they would win easily in the first round. The team left Toronto down 2-0 and looking anything but alive, but after bludgeoning Texas in back-to-back victories, they get a third game in Toronto to try to pull the series out after all. Toronto vs Texas - Game 5 - Wednesday at 4:00 ET - Cole Hamels vs Marcus Stroman When the Rangers picked up Cole Hamels at the trade deadline, it seemed like the best case would be him helping them in the playoffs next year, but they made a big push to get to the playoffs, and now Hamels is on the mound for an elimination game for them. Meanwhile, after a strong rookie season last year, it looked like Stroman was going to be part of next year for the Jays when he tore his ACL in spring training. But his now famous training story brought him back to the team by September, and he has been a huge part of their end-of-season success. After their imported ace struggled a bit in the first game of the series, and then pitched 3 innings of highly debated relief in game 4, Stroman got the call for game 5. As an aside, much has been made of Gibbons' call to pitch David Price for 3 innings of seemingly low leverage relief in game 4. I didn't think it was an absolutely necessary call, but it was something he believed in, and as Houston fans can tell you, once you're up, don't let the other team back into the game. I might not have made the same call, but it was a must-win game, and Gibbons decided that was how they were going to ensure the win, and they did win, so they have a chance to go to the ALCS now. I think they'll win tonight. I thought they'd win the series before it started, and after a rocky start, I think they've found their footing and should play well at home as they did during most of the regular season. But it is one game, and prediction one game is awfully tough. Houston vs Kansas City - Game 5 - Wednesday at 8:00 ET - Collin McHugh vs Johnny Cueto The Royals were hoping to pick up an ace when they traded for Johnny Cueto, but his performance for them this year has been spotty to say the least. He pitched reasonably well in game 2 at home, in one of the Royals' two wins in this series, and they're hoping for more of the same. Meanwhile, McHugh had a strong start for Houston in game 1 of the series, which they won in Kansas City. This has been a pretty well matched series, with both teams splitting the games in both stadiums so far. My guess is still that the Royals are likely to pull this out with the game at home and a strong bullpen. Either way, I'll try to preview the ALCS at the end of the night or in the morning. For the record: New York vs Los Angeles - Game 5 - Thursday at 8:00 ET - Jacob deGrom vs Zack Greinke This will be an excellent pitching matchup. Or it will be another 13-7 game like game 3? This has been a good back and forth series. Clayton Kershaw has started to shut down the narrative that he can't pitch in the playoffs after yesterday's strong performance against the Mets. But if you watched game 1, you saw Jacob deGrom dominate the Dodgers, striking out 13 in 7 innings while allowing 5 hits and no runs. I'm not going to change my prediction now about the Mets winning, I think deGrom will give them a chance to go through to the next round. Enjoy the games today! And remember, win or lose, it's been a great round of playoff baseball. |
Archives
November 2015
Categories
All
Greg JacksonA baseball fan in general. Interested in statistics and analytics. Usually follow the Giants and Blue Jays, fan of all MLB in general. |