Fangraphs did a series previewing the power rankings at every position for all 30 teams. You can find the whole series here. Being Blue Jays and Giants-centric, I thought it would be fun to do a quick summary, with best, worst, and where those two teams rank.
AL East Red Sox - 41.5 WAR Yankees - 40.4 WAR Blue Jays - 39.6 WAR Orioles - 35.8 WAR Rays - 35.6 WAR AL Central Indians - 42.3 WAR White Sox - 36.2 WAR Tigers - 34.5 WAR Twins - 33.0 WAR Royals - 32.5 WAR AL West Astros - 42.3 WAR Mariners - 35.4 WAR Angels - 34.9 WAR Rangers - 31.8 WAR Athletics - 31.6 WAR NL East Mets - 46.2 WAR Nationals - 42.4 WAR Marlins - 32.4 WAR Braves - 20.6 WAR Phillies - 17.3 WAR NL Central Cubs - 50.5 WAR Cardinals - 39.7 WAR Pirates - 39.4 WAR Reds - 29.0 WAR Brewers - 24.4 WAR NL West Dodgers - 49.6 WAR Giants - 41.2 WAR Diamondbacks - 32.3 WAR Padres - 27.3 WAR Rockies - 25.9 WAR Fangraphs uses a WAR baseline of about .294 winning percentage, or about 47.7 wins, so adding those WAR numbers to 47.7 gets you close to the teams expected wins (although you might have to bump them down a little bit, as there are some decimals rounded here that pushes everybody up a little bit.) So good news for Toronto and San Francisco, they're both in as second wild cards by these projections. The baseline to make the playoffs seems to be about 40 WAR, which comes out to about 88 wins, which makes sense, historically. The American League has a lot of parity, with the worst team in Oakland expected to win 78-79 games, and the best teams in Cleveland and Houston projected for about 90 on the nose. The National league... umm, does not. The best teams in Chicago and Los Angeles are projected around 97-98 wins, and the worst team (Philadelphia) is shooting for 65. The National League's three division winners are projected well above any other teams. The Wild Card race could be good as the Cardinals and Pirates are just outside, but the bottom 8 teams in the NL don't look to be very competitive (Miami, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Arizona, San Diego and Colorado). Of that group, Miami and Arizona look the most hopeful as roughly .500 teams. It will be fun to see at the end of the season how close this was to reality.
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Greg JacksonA baseball fan in general. Interested in statistics and analytics. Usually follow the Giants and Blue Jays, fan of all MLB in general. |