Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70)
The Dodgers took advantage of the Giants odd-year slump and injuries to take the NL West for the third year in a row, though their record might seem a little underwhelming given the roughly $300 million they spent on players this year. While a middle of the road run-scoring offense like the Mets, they did lead the NL in home runs and OBP. Their major strength is the top two of their starting rotation, as Greinke and Kershaw should be in the top 3 contenders for the Cy Young award this year. Interestingly though, even with their performance, their ERA was actually 0.01 higher than the Mets. New York Mets (90-72) The Mets were like the Jays and Rangers, making some big moves at the trade deadline (Yoenis Cespedes in particular), and going 37-22 after July 31 to roar past the collapsing Washington Nationals and win the National League East. They did go 4-3 against the Dodgers, but all in July, before the trade deadline. The Mets were middle of the road offensively for the season, but played well once Cespedes came over and Michael Conforto came up. Their strength, though, is in their young starting rotation (plus one hilarious old guy in Bartolo Colon). Their 3.43 ERA was 4th in the NL for the season. Position Breakdown C – Yasmani Grandal (.234/.353/.403, 16 HR, 1.4 rWAR) vs Travis d'Arnaud (.268/.340/.485, 12 HR, 1.7 rWAR) & Kevin Plawecki (.219/.280/.296, 3 HR, rWAR) Grandal graded as one of the best framers in the game this year, and hit well enough early to make the All Star Game. d'Arnaud is a better hitter when healthy, but has had a lot of trouble with that during his young career so far. Still, if he's healthy for this series, he could be a difference maker. Advantage – Mets 1B – Adrian Gonzalez (.275/.350/.480, 28 HR, 3.9 rWAR) vs Lucas Duda (.244/.352/.486, 27 HR, 3.0 rWAR) There isn't a lot of difference here in the offense if you look past the batting average, but Gonzalez is a slightly better fielder, and when we're looking for some difference between the two, we might as well pick something. Besides that, Gonzalez does have a longer track record on offense. Advantage - Dodgers 2B – Howie Kendrick (.295/.336/.409, 9 HR, 1.1 rWAR) vs Daniel Murphy (.281/.322/.449, 16 HR, 1.4 rWAR) Another position where both teams are pretty close. Murphy provides more power, but a little less on base ability. He offsets that with more value on the field at this point though, so again, to avoid calling “push” on every category, advantage here gets weighted by that. Advantage - Mets 3B – Justin Turner (.294/.370/.491, 16 HR, 3.9 rWAR) vs David Wright (.289/.379/.434, 5 HR, 0.5 rWAR in 38 GP) For their careers, Wright would be the easy choice, and for the 38 games he did play this year, he played pretty well. But Turner had another very good season for the Dodgers after coming from the Mets after the 2013 season, and the full year track record may get a bit of an advantage when combined with last year's numbers. Advantage - Dodgers SS – Corey Seager (.337/.425/.561, 4 HR, 1.8 rWAR in 27 GP) vs Wilmer Flores (.263/.295/.408, 16 HR, 0.8 rWAR) Flores may be most famous for a teary performance before the All-Star Game due to some serious communication gaffes by the front office. He soon after came through with some big game winning hits, and has been a good story for the team this year. Seager, on the other hand, was so good in such a short time that he took the starting job from veteran Jimmy Rollins, who understood the decision. Seager along with Correa and Lindor is going to be part of the future of the SS position over the next 5 years or more. Advantage - Dodgers LF – Carl Crawford (.265/.304/.403, 4 HR, 10 SB, -0.2 rWAR) vs Michael Conforto (.270/.335/.506, 9 HR, 2.1 rWAR in 56 GP) Crawford has fallen a long way since being a big offseason signing for the Red Sox coming into the 2011 season. Conforto was kept in the minor leagues due to the veteran presence of Michael Cuddyer, but finally came up and got a position in the starting lineup, and hit well immediately. He is just 22 and will help the Mets contend for the next few years at least. Advantage - Mets CF – Joc Pederson (.210/.346/.417, 26 HR, 2.3 rWAR) vs Yoenis Cespedes (.291/.328/.542, 35 HR, 6.3 rWAR with Detroit & NYM) Despite the ridiculous Cespedes for MVP narrative that built during his huge hot streak in August, Cespedes did actually have an excellent year, and is one of the better overall hitters for the Mets. Pederson got off to a good start and looked like he might take the Rookie of the Year award, but he faded badly contact-wise, though he retained a good enough eye to get to a .346 OBP. At just 23, he has a good future, but he is a bit of a question mark right now. Advantage - Mets RF – Andre Ethier (.294/.366/.486, 14 HR, 2.7 rWAR) & Yasiel Puig (.255/.322/.436, 11 HR, 1.1 rWAR) vs Curtis Granderson (.259/.364/.457, 26 HR, 11 SB, 5.1 rWAR) Puig has been a big story since his debut 2 years ago, and is just 24 years old now, but he has had injury troubles this year, and just barely made the roster for this series. Ethier ended up playing a lot better than expected, but Granderson gave the Mets excellent all around production, and was their best player over the full year by rWAR. Advantage - Mets Bench – A.J. Ellis (C), Jimmy Rollins (IF), Puig, Alex Guerrero (UT), Justin Ruggiano (OF) vs Plawecki, Ruben Tejada (IF), Kelly Johnson (IF), Michael Cuddyer (OF), Juan Lagares (OF), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (OF) The Mets have a bit more depth here, and are carrying a good bench probably because they trust their pitchers (and because they'll need everything they can get against the Dodgers pitchers). I'm guessing a bit on the Dodgers bench here, because it hasn't been announced yet. Advantage - Mets Offense overall – Mets SP – Clayton Kershaw (16-7, 2.13 ERA, 7.5 rWAR), Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66 ERA, 9.3 rWAR), Brett Anderson (10-9, 3.69 ERA, 1.6 rWAR), Mike Bolsinger (?) (6-6, 3.62 ERA, rWAR) vs Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA, 4.7 rWAR), Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 3.24 ERA, 2.1 rWAR), Matt Harvey (13-8, 2.71 ERA, 4.3 rWAR), Bartolo Colon (14-13, 4.16 ERA, 1.0 rWAR) or Steven Matz (4-0, 2.27 ERA, 1.2 rWAR) The question mark there is because the Dodgers could opt to go with just 3 guys, have Kershaw come back on short rest, and Greinke potentially pitch a second game on full rest in game 5. Those two were so good this year that even the Mets young stars are probably in a little tough against them. However, Kershaw has had some issues in the playoffs the last couple of years, although some people note that most of those issues might be more related to the Cardinals in particular. The Mets are young and excellent, and will give the Dodgers all they can handle all the way through. Steven Matz is still questionable because of back spasms, but might be a tougher matchup for the Dodgers than Colon. Advantage - Dodgers RP – Kenley Jansen (2.41 ERA, 13.8 K/9), Juan Nicasio (3.86 ERA, 10.0 K/9), Yimi Garcia (3.34 ERA, 10.8 K/9), Pedro Baez (3.35 ERA, 10.6 K/9), J.P. Howell (1.43 ERA, 8.0 K/9), Chris Hatcher (3.69 ERA, 10.4 K/9) vs Jeurys Familia (1.85 ERA, 9.9 K/9), Tyler Clippard (2.92 ERA, 8.1 K/9 with Oakland & NYM), Addison Reed (3.38 ERA, 8.2 K/9 with Arizona & NYM), Jonathon Niese (4.13 ERA, 5.8 K/9 as SP), Erik Goeddel (2.43 ERA, 9.2 K/9), Hansel Robles (3.67 ERA, 10.2 K/9), Sean Gilmartin (2.67 ERA, 8.5 K/9 if Matz can't go) The bullpen was a disadvantage to the Dodgers last year, and led to them leaving Kershaw in longer than they might have wanted to a couple of times, ultimately costing them the series against the Cardinals. Jansen is excellent at the back end, but there is a bit of shakiness (though lots of strikeouts) among some of the other guys. Hatcher and anybody beyond is a guess right now. The Mets have a strong back end with Familia, Clippard and Reed (Clippard and Reed in particular had much better numbers with the Mets than their original teams), and decent depth overall. Advantage - Mets Prediction – Mets in 5 (the bullpen bites the Dodgers again)
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St Louis Cardinals (100-62)
There isn't a lot to say about this team. Every year (it seems), they contend. Every year, they build a strong team. They've made the playoffs in 12 of the last 16 seasons, winning two World Series in that time. They won more games than any other team this year. They had an absurd 2.94 ERA as a team, despite having no starting pitchers with a FIP below 3. They were very much a run prevention team, as they finished 11th in the NL in runs scored, but their expected record was still 96-66 as they outscored their opponents by 122 runs. In fact, 7 of their top 11 WAR totals were by pitchers. Chicago Cubs (97-65) I started writing this about 10 minutes after the Cubs finished off a 4-0 shutout win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pour one out for the Pirates, who managed 0 runs in 2 wild card games against Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta. The Cubs franchise history is much less storied than the Cardinals, though famously so. They last made the playoffs in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2003. They last won a playoff series (I'm not counting the wild card game as a series) in 1908. Which is their last title. But their future is, surprisingly, now. They are like the NL version of the Astros, young, exciting, with tons of strikeouts (they struck out over 1500 times, something that only a couple of other teams have ever managed). They also led the NL in walks, and only two teams allowed fewer runs than they did. All 8 of their regular starters plus a 9th (Kyle Schwarber, who showed what he's about against the Pirates) hit at least 10 HR, and all 8 regular starters struck out at least 90 times. They are a scary team in these playoffs, and if I were with the Cardinals, I would be a bit nervous. They also played much better in the second half of the season (50-25 vs 47-40 before the All Star Break). On the season, they went 8-11 against the Cardinals. Position Breakdown C – Yadier Molina (.270/.310/.350, 4 HR, 1.5 rWAR) vs Miguel Montero (.248/.345/.409, 15 HR, 1.8 rWAR) Montero had a bit of a better offensive season this year, and Molina is coming off of a thumb injury, but he has the longer track record and an excellent reputation as a defensive catcher and a game caller. Stat Corner has Montero as the 6th most valuable framer in the major leagues, and Molina at 21st with both rating positively. Cubs backup David Ross ranked 12th overall despite having half the playing time of Montero. Like in the Royals series, I would tend to expect Molina to provide more value over a full season, but coming off an injury and in a short series this year, I think the advantage goes the other way. Advantage – Cubs (in a short series) 1B – Mark Reynolds (.230/.315/.398, 13 HR, -0.6 rWAR) & Matt Adams (.240/.280/.377, 5 HR, 0.3 rWAR) vs Anthony Rizzo (.278/.387/.512, 31 HR, 17 SB, 6.3 rWAR) The Cardinals have a decent lineup overall, but this is definitely a hole for them, and the Cubs best hitter this year has been Anthony Rizzo. He is one of the veterans of the infield at just 25 years old. Mark Reynolds' main claim to fame is being the first man to strike out 200 times in one season, and the only man to do it more than once (he's done it 3 times). Advantage - Cubs 2B – Kolten Wong (.262/.321/.386, 11 HR, 15 SB, 2.2 rWAR) vs Starlin Castro (.265/.296/.375, 11 HR, 0.7 rWAR) Castro spent most of the season at SS, but seems to have been moved to 2B now, with Addison Russell moving to the other side of the keystone. Once a promising young player, Castro may be replaced down the line by somebody from the farm system like Javier Baez. Kolten Wong is actually younger than Castro, and right now, he's the better player. Advantage - Cardinals 3B – Matt Carpenter (.272/.365/.505, 28 HR, 4.0 rWAR) vs Kris Bryant (.275/.369/.488, 26 HR, 13 SB, 6.0 rWAR) Bryant is not exclusively a 3B, as he started in LF today against the Pirates before moving to 3B later in the game. He should be the unanimous rookie of the year this year. Against Matt Carpenter though, he sees the best offensive player for the Cardinals, and in a short series, this is a tough position to call. Carpenter was a fairly unheralded prospect who has turned out to be an excellent all-around hitter, though the power this year was way above his previous levels. Advantage – Cubs (because it's unclear if Carpenter's power is totally real) SS – Jhonny Peralta (not a typo, at least not by me) (.275/.334/.411, 17 HR, 1.8 rWAR) vs Addison Russell (.242/.307/.389, 13 HR, 3.4 rWAR) Russell was the big prize in the Jeff Samardzija trade a year ago, and due to a big advantage in fielding metrics, he rates at higher value than Peralta. In the long term, I definitely like the 21-year-old Russell over the 33-year-old Peralta. In a short series, it might be closer than the quick test looks. Advantage - Cubs (because of the fielding, mostly) LF – Matt Holliday (.279/.394/.410, 4 HR, 0.8 rWAR) & Stephen Piscotty (.305/.359/.494, 7 HR, 0.9 rWAR) vs Kyle Schwarber (.246/.355/.487, 16 HR, 1.8 rWAR) I'm cheating a bit by putting Schwarber here as Chris Coghlan started more during the season, but I'll include him in RF. I give the Cardinals 3 different guys here, because it's not clear who they prefer, injuries or otherwise. Schwarber was red hot when he debuted, before cooling off. But his performance in tonight's game shows what he is capable of. If Holliday was healthy all year, he could make a difference. Bryant playing here changes things a bit too. Advantage – Cubs CF – Randal Grichuk (.276/.329/.548, 17 HR, 3.2 rWAR) & Tommy Pham (.268/.347/.477, 5 HR, 1.5 rWAR) vs Dexter Fowler (.250/.346/.411, 17 HR, 20 SB, 2.2 rWAR) There isn't a lot clear about the Cardinals playoff roster as they've been beaten up by injuries recently, so I'm guessing on some of these. If Grichuk starts here and is healthy, he gives the Cards a pretty good jolt. If he's not healthy, Fowler showed some pretty good game tonight against the Pirates already, and is a well-rounded player. Advantage – Cubs (because of uncertainty) RF – Jason Heyward (.293/.359/.439, 13 HR, 23 SB, 6.5 rWAR) vs Chris Coghlan (.250/.341/.443, 16 HR, 11 SB, 1.9 rWAR) & Jorge Soler (.262/.324/.399, 10 HR, -0.1 rWAR) Some people have been disappointed in Jason Heyward for not hitting more home runs. Those people are wrong. He is an excellent hitter and one of the best fielders in right field that there is. He may also get time in CF depending on who is healthy and on the Cardinals final roster (which will only be announced tomorrow, so I am guessing on some of these based on some reports around the web). Advantage - Cardinals Bench – Tony Cruz (C), Pete Kozma (IF), plus platoon members above vs David Ross (C), Chris Denorfia (OF), Tommy La Stella (IF), Javier Baez (IF), Austin Jackson (OF) This is a tough one to call, because some of the positions above aren't really clear on who will be the starter and who might come off the bench depending on pitching matchup, as a late defensive replacement, or something else. The Cubs do seem to have a bit more depth here. Advantage - Cubs Offense overall – Cubs The high strikeout approach could be trouble for the Cubs, but they have a deeper, healthier lineup overall here. If the series was won purely on offense, the Cubs would have a big advantage here. But there is still the matter of pitching. SP – John Lackey (13-10, 2.77 ERA, 5.5 rWAR), Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA, 3.1 rWAR), Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.43 ERA, 3.8 rWAR), Lance Lynn (12-11, 3.03 ERA, 3.5 rWAR) vs Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA(!), 8.6 rWAR), Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34 ERA, 2.9 rWAR), Kyle Hendricks (8-7, 3.95 ERA, 1.7 rWAR), Jason Hammel (10-7, 3.74 ERA, 1.6 rWAR) Jake Arrieta is easily the best pitcher here, and completely shut down the Pirates in the Wild Card game. Unfortunately for the Cubs, because of pitching in the wild card game, he won't be available again probably until game 3. The Cardinals lack a single superstar starting pitcher like Arrieta, but there are no breaks in their rotation either. Advantage – Cardinals (because Arrieta is likely to only pitch once) RP – Trevor Rosenthal (2.10 ERA, 10.9 K/9), Kevin Siegrist (2.17 ERA, 10.8 K/9), Adam Wainwright (1.61 ERA, 6.4 K/9), 3-4 of Seth Maness, Carlos Villanueva, Randy Choate, Jonathon Broxton, Steve Cischek, Matt Belisle, Miguel Socolovich vs Hector Rondon (1.67 ERA, 8.9 K/9), Travis Wood (3.84 ERA, 10.5 K/9), Pedro Strop (2.91 ERA, 10.7 K/9), Justin Grimm (1.99 ERA, 12.1 K/9), Jason Motte (3.91 ERA, 6.3 K/9), 1-2 of Clayton Richard, Trevor Cahill, Fernando Rodney, Neil Ramirez I had to throw out a few names for the last few slots in both bullpens, because they won't be announced formally until sometime tomorrow. The Cubs have a lot of firepower in their top 4 guys, but the Cardinals have 2 excellent guys at the top plus returning starter Adam Wainwright, and they did have the best pitching staff in the league all year. I'm not sure I trust Mike Matheny to handle his bullpen as well as Joe Maddon though. Advantage – Cubs (due to the manager – I changed my mind at the last minute here) Prediction – Cubs in 5 Kansas City Royals (95-67)
The Royals were a huge story last year when they made the playoffs for the first time in 29 years and rode hot bats and a great bullpen all the way to game 7 of the World Series, when they were taken down by Madison Bumgarner’s Paul Bunyan-esque performance. A lot of people didn’t expect much of them this year, but they led the AL Central for much of the season and ended up with the best record in the league, though their expected record with run differential was only 90-72. That’s what a good bullpen will get you. To their advantage, as noted in yesterday’s links, this team almost never strikes out (relatively speaking). Houston Astros (86-76) The Astros actually underperformed their record by a fair bit, with a 93-69 expected record. On the opposite side of the strikeout battle, the Houston Astros are a swing hard and hope type of team. And it worked this year. They were second in the AL in home runs to the Blue Jays, and led the AL in strikeouts. The Astros had 11 guys reach double digits in home runs, plus 2 more end with 9 each, while also having 7 players strike out over 100 times. The Astros success is the result of a plan put in place by an extremely analytics-focused front office, though it has happened much sooner than expected, considering that they lost at least 106 games in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Their lineup features no players over 30, and up to 5 guys under 25 years old. They could be good for a long time. Position Breakdown C – Salvador Perez (.260/.280/.426, 21 HR, 2.2 rWAR) vs Jason Castro (.211/.283/.365, 11 HR, 1.3 rWAR) Both guys had their struggles offensively, particularly in OBP, but Salvador Perez is the better hitter here, although yet again, Ned Yost rode him hard, having him play 142 games. On the offensive side, the advantage definitely goes to Perez. However, on the defensive side, Perez rated as the 8th worst framing catcher with at least 2000 chances (out of 62), while Castro was the 7th best by the same measure. Castro was 22 runs better than Perez here, which is nearly 2 wins over a full season. However, over such a short series, the offense may play a little more here. Advantage – Royals (in a short series) 1B – Eric Hosmer (.297/.363/.459, 18 HR, 3.6 rWAR) vs Chris Carter (.199/.307/.427, 24 HR, -0.1 rWAR) Not nearly as much to see here. Carter definitely fits the all-or-nothing approach of the Astros, as he struck out 151 times in 460 AB, while hitting 24 HR. He did show a good eye in the wild card game, drawing 3 BB in 3 chances. But the stats don’t lie here. Hosmer had a breakout playoffs last year, and played very well this year. Advantage - Royals 2B – Ben Zobrist (.276/.359/.450, 13 HR, 1.9 rWAR with Oakland & Kansas City) vs Jose Altuve (.313/.353/.459, 15 HR, 38 SB, 4.5 rWAR) Ben Zobrist was a perfect addition for the Royals at the trade deadline, filling in in LF when Alex Gordon was hurt, and then taking over for the terrible Omar Infante when Gordon came back. He’s a versatile player who has been surprisingly valuable over the last few years, and added the type of batting eye that the Royals don’t always have. However, Altuve is beloved and excellent, and was a big reason the Astros beat the Yankees last night. He led the AL in hits and SB for the second year in a row, and is only 25 years old. Advantage - Astros 3B – Mike Moustakas (.284/.348/.470, 22 HR, 4.4 rWAR) vs Luis Valbuena (.224/.310/.438, 25 HR, 2.1 rWAR) Valbuena is similar to Carter, with 106 Ks in 493 AB and 25 HR. He had a decent enough season, but Moustakas continued his playoff breakout, finally looking like the star people had been predicting for years. Some might consider it a late breakout, but he’s only 26 years old, and should be good for a while. Advantage - Royals SS – Alcides Escobar (.257/.293/.320, 3 HR, 17 SB, 0.6 rWAR) vs Carlos Correa (.279/.345/.512, 22 HR, 14 SB, 4.1 rWAR in 99 GP) For some reason, the Royals insist on batting Escobar in leadoff. Ned Yost admits to not being sure why, but that they seem to play better when he hits leadoff. I haven’t really looked at those numbers, but it doesn’t make sense with that batting line. He is a good offensive shortstop. This contest is not close though, as Correa, the youngest position player in the major leagues this year, is going to be a superstar, maybe as soon as next year. Advantage - Astros LF - Alex Gordon (.271/.377/.432, 13 HR, 2.8 rWAR) vs Colby Rasmus (.238/.314/.475, 25 HR, 2.6 rWAR) Rasmus has had an up and down career, but is only 28 years old, and hit what turned to be the game-winning home run in the second inning against the Yankees in the wild card game. Their value overall was close this year, but Gordon missed nearly 60 games this year, and has been worth 24+ WAR over the previous 4 seasons. Rasmus swings hard (25 HR), misses often (154 K in 432 AB), but might connect at the right time. Advantage - Royals CF – Lorenzo Cain (.307/.361/.477, 16 HR, 28 SB, 7.2 rWAR) vs Carlos Gomez (.255/.314/.409, 12 HR, 17 SB, 2.3 rWAR with NYM & Houston) Gomez was excellent the last couple of years, but hurt and inconsistent this year. He did come up big in the wild card game last night, hitting a home run against Masahiro Tanaka to help the Astros to a victory. Lorenzo Cain broke out in a big way after a strong playoff performance last year, and was probably the third best position player in the AL after Trout and Donaldson. Advantage - Royals RF – Alex Rios (.255/.287/.353, 4 HR, 9 SB, -1.1 rWAR) vs George Springer (.276/.367/.459, 16 HR, 16 SB, 3.8 rWAR in 102 GP) Truthfully, if the Royals are smart, they might bench Rios (or leave him off the roster for the playoffs). But for now, I’ll assume they’re going to start him. That being the case, the 25-year-old Springer is a much better player, an all-around threat who plays really well in the outfield too. Advantage - Astros DH – Kendrys Morales (.290/.362/.485, 22 HR, 2.4 rWAR) vs Evan Gattis (.246/.285/.463, 27 HR, 11 3B(!), 0.5 rWAR) The exclamation mark for Gattis is a huge statistical anomaly. A slow baserunner, Gattis has gone 0 for 1 in stolen base attempts over 3 seasons in the major leagues, and yet he managed to hit 11 3B this year. There are several articles about it, but it seems like it was basically a situation of hitting the ball to the right part of the right fields. Meanwhile, Morales was a bit of a controversial signing in the offseason, but gave the Royals everything they could have hoped for with his offensive performance. Advantage - Royals Bench – Drew Butera (C), Paulo Orlando (OF), Jarrod Dyson (OF), Christian Colon (IF), Omar Infante (IF) vs Hank Conger (C), Marwin Gonzalez (IF), Jake Marisnick (OF), Preston Tucker (OF), Jed Lowrie (IF) The Royals may be more likely to use parts of their bench, especially with pinch-runner Jarrod Dyson, but the Astros have a bit more power and versatility. Keep an eye out for Marwin Gonzalez, who played more than 10 games at 5 different positions this year (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and LF). Advantage - Astros Offense overall – Royals Very different approaches overall. The Royals hit .269/.322/.412 with 139 HR, and the Astros hit .250/.315/.437 with 230 HR. The end result though? The Royals scored 724 runs, and the Astros scored 729 runs. The advantage here is mostly due to the strikeout totals. The Royals struck out a major league low 973 times, the Astros struck out 1392 times (over 2.5 more Ks per game). SP – Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08 ERA, 1.9 rWAR), Johnny Cueto (11-13, 3.44 ERA, 3.9 rWAR), Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA, 2.5 rWAR), Kris Medlen (6-2, 4.01 ERA, 0.1 rWAR) vs Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 ERA, 7.2 rWAR), Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89 ERA, 3.1 rWAR), Lance McCullers (6-7, 3.22 ERA, 2.4 rWAR), Mike Fiers (7-10, 3.69 ERA, 2.2 rWAR with Milwaukee & Houston) or Scott Kazmir (7-11, 3.10 ERA, 3.3 rWAR with Oakland & Houston) Johnny Cueto was supposed to be the big addition for the Royals, but struggled a lot with Kansas City and is a bit of a question mark here. The Astros have the possible Cy Young award winner who completely shut down the Yankees in the Wild Card game. The only downside is that they had to use him in the Wild Card game, and he probably won’t be available until at least game 3 of the series. The Astros actually allowed the fewest runs in the AL this year though, and have a deep rotation. Advantage - Astros RP – Wade Davis (0.94 ERA, 10.4 K/9), Kelvin Herrera (2.71 ERA, 8.3 K/9), Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA, 8.2 K/9), Danny Duffy (4.08 ERA, 6.7 K/9 mostly as SP), Franklin Morales (3.18 ERA, 5.9 K/9), Luke Hochevar (3.73 ERA, 8.7 K/9), Chris Young (3.06 ERA, 6.1 K/9 mostly as SP) vs Luke Gregerson (3.10 ERA, 8.7 K/9), Will Harris (1.90 ERA, 8.6 K/9), Pat Neshek (3.62 ERA, 8.4 K/9), Tony Sipp (1.99 ERA, 10.3 K/9), Chad Qualls (4.38 ERA, 8.4 K/9), Josh Fields (3.55 ERA, 11.9 K/9) Last year the Royals rode the huge HDH combination to the end of the World Series. This year, they have a similarly effective bullpen, but Greg Holland was lost to Tommy John Surgery a few weeks ago. Ryan Madson has been excellent all year though, and Danny Duffy has turned up his effectiveness since being added to the bullpen. The Astros had a bit of a shaky bullpen at times, but pitched well down the stretch. Still, if the Royals can get a lead after 5 or 6 innings despite the slight disadvantage at SP, they could shorten these games up quickly. Advantage - Royals Prediction – Royals in 4 I'll start a little round of playoff previews here. I want to take a look at the teams position by position, and overall offensively and defensively. Since this matchup is set, I'll start here. Next post may go with the other AL matchup, since it is now set.
Toronto Blue Jays (93-69) Many of you reading this are somewhat familiar with this team by now. After reaching July 28 at 50-51, they made a series of big trades and went 43-18 down the stretch, narrowly missing home field advantage through the whole playoffs. They do get home field advantage in this series, which is good, because they were 53-28 at home, and 40-41 on the road. They finished the season outscoring their opponents by 221 runs, giving them an expected record of 102-60, losing a lot of close games as they had some bullpen struggles, especially in the first half of the season. Against Texas this year, they went 4-2, outscoring them 34-21. Three of those games came in late June, before the trade deadline, and the other three were in late August. In both series, Toronto went 2-1, and scored 12 runs against the Rangers in two different games. Texas Rangers (88-74) The Rangers were actually worse than the Blue Jays at the end of July 28, when they lost 21-5 to the Yankees to sink to 47-52. They finished 41-22 down the stretch after adding Cole Hamels in a surprising deal. Unlike the Blue Jays, they actually outperformed their run differential, with an expected record of 83-79, but finished strong by going 20-12 in September and early October. The Rangers actually played a little better on the road than at home, going 45-36 vs 43-38. Their ballpark plays extremely favourably for hitters. Position Breakdown C - Russell Martin (.240/.329/.458, 23 HR, 3.3 rWAR) & Dioner Navarro (.246/.307/.374, 5 HR, 0.7 rWAR) vs Robinson Chirinos (.232/.325/.438, 10 HR, 1.8 rWAR) & Chris Gimenez (.255/.330/.490, 5 HR, 0.7 rWAR) The outside stats are actually pretty similar here, but I give the Jays the advantage given Martin's experience and defensive abilities. A lot is made of leadership, which is hard to measure, but people do like to note that in Martin's 10 years as a starter, his teams have made the playoffs 8 times. Advantage - Blue Jays 1B - Justin Smoak (.226/.299/.470, 18 HR, 1.3 rWAR) & Chris Colabello (.321/.367/.520, 15 HR, 0.7 rWAR) vs Mitch Moreland (.278/.330/.482, 23 HR, 2.2 rWAR) & Mike Napoli (.224/.324/.410, 18 HR, 1.0 rWAR with Boston & Texas) While Colabello has the flashiest offensive numbers, he was terrible on the field this year (albeit much of that disaster came in left field before the Jays picked up Ben Revere). Still, they like Smoak for his fielding, and his bat has been tolerable for a lower part of the order. Both combinations offer a left-handed bat and a right-handed bat (Smoak is a switch hitter, but has been terrible against lefties), but by a slight margin Texas probably has the better combination at the moment. Advantage - Rangers 2B - Ryan Goins (.250/.318/.354, 5 HR, 2.7 rWAR) vs Rougned Odor (.261/.316/.465, 16 HR, 1.9 rWAR) The stats actually do Goins a bit of a disservice here, as an adjustment in approach with Toronto's hitting coach made him a much better hitter in the second half of the season (.226/.273/.321 improved to .274/.361/.387). Odor is probably the better long-term bet given that he is hitting like this at only 21 years old, but given Goins' improvement along with the rest of the team, I give the Jays a slight advantage here, defensively in particular. Advantage - Blue Jays 3B - Josh Donaldson (.297/.371/.568, 41 HR, 8.8 rWAR) vs Adrian Beltre (.287/.334/.453, 18 HR, 5.8 rWAR) Both teams have their best position player at third base. Both players are very good hitters and fielders, and help make the entire team go. Adrian Beltre should be a Hall of Famer when he retires, one of the best fielders ever at his position, and with a chance to get to 3000 hits in the next 2 years, and with over 400 home runs in his career. This year, however, Josh Donaldson was a monster (as he has been for the last couple of years), and the playoffs are now. I didn't write much about Donaldson because much already has been written about him. Advantage - Blue Jays SS - Troy Tulowitzki (.280/.337/.440, 17 HR, 2.9 rWAR with Colorado & Toronto) vs Elvis Andrus (.258/.309/.357, 7 HR, 25 SB, 2.1 rWAR) Tulowitzki struggled a bit with Toronto and got hurt down the stretch, but if he is mostly back to normal, he is one of the best shortstops in baseball. Andrus is still pretty young for a guy who has been around for several years, but he has struggled offensively over the last couple of years. His main value is providing entertainment by harassing Adrian Beltre. Advantage - Blue Jays LF - Ben Revere (.306/.342/.377, 2 HR, 31 SB, 2.6 rWAR with Philadelphia & Toronto) vs Josh Hamilton (.253/.291/.441, 8 HR, 0.4 rWAR) & Leonys Martin (.219/.264/.313, 5 HR, 14 SB, 1.1 rWAR) Revere helped stabilize the Jays defense after coming over from Philadelphia. Even though fielding metrics don't totally love him, they (and Jays fans) definitely prefer him out there to Colabello, and his contact hitting style has fit in well at the top of the lineup (though he should probably hit a little lower in the order, all things being equal). Hamilton is no longer the MVP candidate of old, and the line for the Rangers in left field is pretty rough, even if they put Mike Napoli out here as well. If Hamilton heats up at all, he could give the Rangers and advantage here, but for now, I have to go with the significant advantage the other way. Advantage - Blue Jays CF - Kevin Pillar (.278/.314/.399, 12 HR, 25 SB, 5.2 rWAR) vs Delino DeShields Jr (.261/.344/.374, 2 HR, 25 SB, 1.1 rWAR) While the batting lines here are kind of similar, and DeShields' OBP actually bumps him up a bit, Pillar was so good in the outfield that he runs away with this. Just go look at some of his highlights from this year (and there are many to choose from). Advantage - Blue Jays RF - Jose Bautista (.250/.377/.536, 40 HR, 5.1 rWAR) vs Shin-Soo Choo (.276/.375/.463, 22 HR, 3.5 rWAR) After looking like a disaster in the first year of his contract with Texas last year, Choo came back to solid value this year, and is the second best hitter in the Rangers lineup. Bautista is the second or third best hitter in the Jays lineup, but has a significant power advantage over Choo while providing equal on base value. He remains a huge power threat at 34, and should be excited to be in the playoffs for the first time in his career. Advantage - Blue Jays DH - Edwin Encarnacion (.277/.372/.557, 39 HR, 4.7 rWAR) vs Prince Fielder (.305/.378/.463, 23 HR, 1.9 rWAR) After missing much of last year, Fielder came back playing pretty well this year, but Texas was hoping for the guy who averaged 38 home runs a year from 2007-2012, not 23 HR in the ballpark they play in. Encarnacion's batting line was pretty good, and like Goins, he improved massively in the second half, although this may have been more health related. After reaching the All-Star break at .233/.326/.452 with 18 HR, he hit .336/.433/.700 with 21 HR in the final 61 games of the season, and was a big reason for the Jays surge down the stretch. August in particular, he went nuts, hitting .407/.460/.919. He has been a metronome of excellence for 4 seasons in a row now, hitting .274/.371/.549 with an average of 38 HR, almost mirror images of this year's line. Advantage - Blue Jays Offense overall - Advantage to Blue Jays MLB.com gives the Rangers a slight advantage at 2B and LF where I went the other way, but I still think the Jays have a comfortable advantage here, and having outscored Texas by 140 runs during the season underscores that point pretty nicely. SP - David Price (18-5, 2.45 ERA, 5.9 rWAR with Detroit & Toronto), Marcus Stroman (4-0, 1.67 ERA, 1.2 rWAR), Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA, 3.6 rWAR), R.A. Dickey (11-11, 3.91 ERA, 2.3 rWAR) vs Yovani Gallardo (13-11, 3.42 ERA, 4.1 rWAR), Cole Hamels (13-8, 3.65 ERA, 4.4 rWAR with Philadelphia & Texas), Colby Lewis (17-9, 4.66 ERA, 1.0 rWAR), Nick Martinez or Derek Holland Toronto's starting rotation was actually a huge reason for their second half success. As mentioned previously, they had 3 of the top 4 second half ERAs in the AL, and that's before they added Marcus Stroman. Cole Hamels has had postseason success in the past, but has been beaten up by Toronto in his career. Gallardo actually won both games that Texas won against Toronto, and they would have to face him twice potentially in this series as he is opening up the series for Texas. Still, the team he shut out in June has changed significantly, and the loss was closer in August. Texas will face a real challenge against these Toronto starters, who can all go deep into games. Advantage - Blue Jays RP - Roberto Osuna (2.58 ERA, 9.7 K/9), Aaron Sanchez (3.22 ERA, 5.9 K/9), Liam Hendriks (2.92 ERA, 9.9 K/9), Brett Cecil (2.48 ERA, 11.6 K/9), Aaron Loup (4.46 ERA, 9.8 K/9), Mark Lowe (1.96 ERA, 10.0 K/9 with Seattle & Toronto), LaTroy Hawkins (3.26 ERA, 7.9 K/9 with Colorado & Toronto) vs Shawn Tolleson (2.99 ERA, 9.5 K/9), Keone Kela (2.39 ERA, 10.1 K/9), Tanner Scheppers (5.63 ERA, 7.5 K/9), Sam Freeman (3.05 ERA, 9.4 K/9), Jake Diekman (2.08 ERA, 8.3 K/9), Sam Dyson (1.15 ERA, 8.6 K/9)... Having to guess on some of those Rangers pitchers, though it seems like Tolleson, Dyson, Kela and Diekman are likely at least. The Rangers bullpen was pretty good down the stretch, helping them get to the playoffs, but the Jays also pitched well after putting Sanchez in the bullpen and bringing in Lowe and Hawkins. Osuna is only 20 years old, but pitched well before struggling a bit at the end of the year. Still, Toronto's depth may give them an advantage (even if Aaron Loup scares me more than a little). Advantage - Blue Jays ESPN had 23 "experts" predict every round of the playoffs. 17 of the 23 had the Jays winning the ALCS, and 12 of 23 had them winning the World Series. Of the 4 Division Series matchups, however, they were the only one unanimously picked, as all 23 had them advancing. I can't say I disagree here. Prediction - Blue Jays in 3 Let's build a playoff team! I'm only going to do this exercise with the Blue Jays because I've followed them more closely than other teams in the playoffs, and because so far I think the people reading here are most interested in that.
Why do this exercise? Why not just go with the 25-man roster from the regular season? The main reason is days off. In the playoffs, most teams will run with a 4-man rotation, and your relievers can get more rest. The Blue Jays played most of the year with a 12 or 13 man pitching staff, and could probably very comfortably (please let this happen) play with maybe 10. I would almost advocate 9, but that's not likely. Though a couple of the wild card teams are doing that for the wild card game, because why wouldn't you? Starting Lineup (using a lineup analysis tool to put them in an ideal order based on OBP and SLG - note, they think Bautista should lead off. Sadly, this will never happen, so I'll use one of their best options). LF - Ben Revere 3B - Josh Donaldson SS - Troy Tulowitzki DH - Edwin Encarnacion RF - Jose Bautista 1B - Justin Smoak C - Russell Martin CF - Kevin Pillar 2B - Ryan Goins That's the easy part (you could swap Colabello in for Smoak for some pitchers, lefties especially, and/or switch them during games). "Why is Jose batting 5th instead of 3rd?!" Turns out 5th is more important than 3rd for a number of reasons. That's not tradition, but I could definitely see basically this lineup with those two guys switched. C - Dioner Navarro 1B/DH - Chris Colabello OF - Ezequiel Carrera IF/OF - Cliff Pennington OF - Dalton Pompey IF - Munenori Kawasaki It's a big bench, and maybe you think you wouldn't need it all given that lineup, but I'd rather have some ability to pinch hit where necessary. Maybe you could put in Hague or Josh Thole instead of Kawasaki. Darwin Barney was added to the roster too late to be part of this. SP - David Price SP - Marcus Stroman SP - R.A. Dickey SP - Marco Estrada This isn't really analysis, as apparently it has been announced that Stroman will pitch second in the order. I don't really question it too much. Fun fact, David Price led the AL in ERA since the All-Star break. Second best was... Marco Estrada, and fourth was R.A. Dickey. And Stroman had an ERA of less than 2, just didn't pitch enough innings to "qualify". If it were me, I might be inclined to put Dickey between Price and Stroman to really vary the styles and throw opposing hitters off, but if you only get to 6 games in a series, then Stroman gets to pitch again, and he's been excellent. RHP - Roberto Osuna RHP - Aaron Sanchez LHP - Brett Cecil RHP - Mark Lowe RHP - LaTroy Hawkins RHP - Liam Hendriks This is what I would do. I am guessing that the Jays will probably have a 5-man bench and add LHP Aaron Loup (who is a scary proposition) to have another left hander out of the bullpen, but I think they don't need to. But I don't get paid to manage the team. A lot of predictors are picking them to go far, and even win the World Series. I know it will be fun to watch. Unless the Yankees win. That'd be a real bummer. It's playoff time everybody!!
So it's time for a quick playoff preview / prediction for the Wild Card round. American League Wild Card Houston Astros at New York Yankees The surprising Astros made the playoffs, though they have to open on the road. The good news for them is that they have possible Cy Young award winner Dallas Keuchel starting for them. The bad news is that he is on short rest, and pitching on the road (he is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA on the road, 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA at home... seriously, look at that!) The again good news, however is, that one of those road wins was a 0 run outing at Yankee Stadium against the Yankees. The best pitcher type to be in Yankee Stadium is a left-handed groundball pitcher, which is exactly Keuchel. One game is really hard to predict, but I think Houston can pull it off behind their ace. Prediction - Houston wins. National League WIld Card Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Pity the Pirates, in a way. After a long time of not getting to .500 or making the playoffs, their first 3 trips back have all sent them to the Wild Card game. Last year, they got Bumgarnered, and this year they get Jake Arrieta, who has allowed 12 runs since the All-Star Break in 15 games. I'd love to see them do well, but I think Arrieta at least takes the Cubs one step closer to fulfilling the prediction from Back to the Future 2. Prediction - Chicago wins. This is a short post, but these are one-game playoffs, and a lot of analysis is tough. Having seen what one pitcher can do in the playoffs (again, click that Bumgarner link), my prediction goes mostly on the starting pitcher in the games. Nothing against Tanaka or Gerrit Cole, but the other two guys have been exceptional this year. I'll come back for the division series once the matchups are set! |
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Greg JacksonA baseball fan in general. Interested in statistics and analytics. Usually follow the Giants and Blue Jays, fan of all MLB in general. |