It's been just about 2 months since opening day, and just about 2 months since my last post. So I guess it feels like time.
Teams are now more or less one third of the way into their seasons (at 54 games they will be), so it's a good time to see which teams have been playing well, which teams have surprised (one way or another), and which players are award-worthy. It tends to be more common to look at these at the quarter point or halfway point, but 2 of 6 months seems like not a bad spot. I may revisit these points at the end of July, when we're two thirds done. Teams Above Expectations
Below Expectations
Players American League MVP (so far) - Remember how Mike Trout was the best player in the world? Yeah, that's still true. He's on pace for another 10-win season, with a wOBA of .416, plus strong center field defense. He's walking at a nearly career-high rate, and striking out less than he has in any year but 2013. He will eventually turn 25 (in August), and historically speaking may not have hit his peak yet. MVP (runner up) - Here's hoping that voters don't punish Trout for his team's record... but they probably will. Just behind him in fWAR is 23-year-old Manny Machado, who returned to shortstop with the injury of veteran J.J. Hardy. He has a Trout-esque wOBA of .417 with strong infield defense, and these two guys should be competing for this award for the next 5 years. Honorable Mention - Riding close behind is Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts, also just 23 years old. His dominance has been expected for a few years, but it took a bit of time to build to. He's now looking like he'll be a force in Boston's lineup for quite a while. LVP (Least Valuable Player) - Oh Prince Fielder... from ages 22-29, he averaged 160 games, 33 doubles, 35 home runs, 90 walks, and a slash line of .286/.390/.528. Since joining Texas for his age 30 season, he's missed 120 games in one season (in which he was hitting .247/.360/.360 with 3 home runs in 42 games) before hitting pretty well last year. That seems to have been a temporary bounceback, as he's now anchoring (as in holding back) the Texas offense with a slash line of .194/.263/.298, which combined with his "defense" when he plays the field, has been worth -1.4 fWAR so far this year. But don't worry, he only has 4 more years (and $96 million) left on his contract. Cy Young (so far) - Chris Sale has been pretty excellent the last few years, striking out over 30% of batters the last two years. This year he's taken a little off (intentionally, not because of injury), and now has a 9-1 record with a 2.29 ERA and still just under a strikeout per inning. The record shuldn't matter much, but given a close top few pitchers in the AL, it could be a tie-breaker. Cy Young (runner up) - Sale's quietly excellent teammate Jose Quintana has "only" a 5-5 record, but bests Sale in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and fWAR (though it's close in all 4). I gave Sale the slight edge because he has a history of a bit more dominance, while Quintana has been more of a "quietly very good". Still, he could be the right choice of the two. Honorable Mention - Currently third in fWAR among AL starter is 36-year-old Rich Hill, who made his first starts in the Major Leagues last year since 2009, and this year has an 8-3 record to go with a 2.25 ERA, 2.67 FIP, and 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings. At this age, and averaging less than 6 innings per start, he probably won't continue this dominance, but it's a good story so far. Cy Old - It's tempting to choose Jered Weaver, but when his "fastball" is averaging 82.4 mph, his 5.40 ERA and 5.52 FIP seem about right. Anibal Sanchez, on the other hand, is still averaging over 90 mph on his fastball, but it is down 1.3 mph from last year. Still though, at age 32, his ERA is second worst in the AL, and his FIP is the worst, thanks to the 5th highest walk rate in the majors at 4.6 walks per nine innings. Dishonorable Mention - Yordano Ventura has also lost 1.4 mph off his fastball, but it's still averaging 95 mph. His major issue is that he's walking 5.34 men per nine innings while striking out just 6.14 per nine. That plus a high rate of home runs allowed has not put him off to any kind of good start. Rookie of the Year - The Rangers' Nomar Mazara is off to a strong start, hitting .302/.348/.479, and some of the biggest raw power seen so far this year. At the moment he has no strong competition in the AL, so this award is his until somebody else tries to claim it. National League MVP (so far) - While Bryce Harper got off to a good start, he's struggled lately, and currently doesn't lead his own team in fWAR. We're going to talk about him some more, but right now the leader across the major leagues in fWAR is Clayton Kershaw. He has already done the MVP/Cy Young combo, and somebody else may step up to take this award (as people usually like to not give it to a pitcher), but for now, he's been so good it's hard to ignore. Where to start... his ERA, as mentioned before, is 1.56. His FIP is actually lower. He has struck out 105 batters (a career high 34.0% of all hitters he's faced so far). He's walked 5. That's FIVE. That's a 21-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If he has a glitch on his record, it's his April 9th start agains the Giants when he gave up home runs to pitcher Madison Bumgarner and utility infielder Ehire Adrianza while striking out just 5 in 8 innings. MVP (runner up) - Boy has Dexter Fowler earned his 1-year deal already, leading NL hitters with 3.2 fWAR so far behind a .416 wOBA and good center field defense. If there's a reason not to vote for him, it might be a more "traditional" reason, which is that the Cubs have a LOT of good players, and without Fowler... they'd probably still be the best team in the league. Given his pedigree, this probably won't continue (that and his .389 BABIP), but it's a good start. Honorable Mention - A lot of close calls here, as Fowler's teammate Ben Zobrist has 2.9 fWAR behind a .418 wOBA, and Marcell Ozuna has 2.5 fWAR with a .408 wOBA, but for just the first third of the season, credit has to go to National's second baseman Daniel Murphy, hitting a sizzling .397/.428/.634 for a .447 wOBA. The .415 BABIP and 10 walks in 51 games gives me no belief that it will continue, but again, points for what he has achieved so far. LVP - The only player with more negative (fewer total?) WAR than Prince Fielder is Braves' shortstop Erick Aybar, who has been a decent player over the last 8 years, but at age 32 (seems like a theme) has fallen off of a cliff, "hitting" .182/225/.209 for a .191 wOBA, and -1.7 fWAR thanks to negative defensive value as well. In "good" news for the Braves, his contract is up this year, and he's on the DL. That and they're not trying to win (I mean... look at that team). Cy Young - Did I miss anything on Kershaw up there? His WHIP is 0.646, which would be the best mark ever. That's EVER. The curent standard bearer is Pedro Martinez' 2000 season when he had a 0.737 WHIP. Kershaw's current 245 ERA+ is a tiny bit better than Pedro's 1999 season mark of 243, but still well behind Pedro's modern record of 291 from that 2000 season (and a little behind Greg Maddux's 1994 and 1995 seasons at 271 and 260, respectively). But that's the company he's in right now. And in case you haven't been following much baseball and think that it might be a fluke... since 2011, Kershaw has a 2.11 ERA, averaging 10 strikeouts per 9 innings, and has already won 3 Cy Young awards, finished second once and third once, plus an MVP award. He's also 28. That is 5 days younger than 2-time NBA MVP Stephen Curry. Cy Young (runner up) - Some people worried they were going a little strong by picking 23-year-old Noah Syndergaard here so early in his career... but he's earned every bit of it. Second in fWAR, with a 1.84 ERA to go with a 1.66 FIP, he's averaging 98 mph with both his fastball and his sinker, plus over 91 mph on his SLIDER. At 6'6" and 240 lbs, he looks like he should throw that hard, and batters are really struggling with him (though Hunter Pence seems fine - that's 106 mph off the bat on a 98 mph pitch outside). Thor is striking out about a third of the hitters he faces, and while his control is not quite at Kershaw's level, he has walked just 9 batters in 10 starts and one relief appearance, which is pretty superb. He'll be competing for more of these. Honorable Mention - There were some who were worried about the big contract for Johnny Cueto, but so far he has earned every cent, going 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA in his first 11 starts, including 3 complete games and 2 shutouts. Pitching for the even-year Giants has really agreed with him so far, and he's not too far ahead of teammates Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija. By the end of the year, this spot could also have Jose Fernandez, Jake Arrieta, or Stephen Strasburg, but highlighting Cueto and his 2.5 fWAR seems like a good choice here. Cy Old - Francisco Liriano seemed to have revived his career with the Pirates over the last few years (35-25, 3.26 ERA, 9.6 K/9), but the age-32 bug seems to have struck again. His ERA is up to 4.63. Which is actually belied by an even worse 5.43 FIP thanks to the third worst walk rate in the majors (5.25 per 9), and 13th highest home rate (1.70 per 9). His velocity is virtually the same as the last three years, so it's hard to say what the cause it, but it is not good. Rookie of the Year - Popular preseason pick Corey Seager has been the best rookie in the NL at 1.9 fWAR, and in fact is 12th in the NL among all position players, rookie or not. He's hit .278/.333/.474 with very good defense at shortstop and 9 home runs so far. It may not be long before he's on that MVP list, and if the Dodgers do make a run this year, he's likely to be a big part of it. Honorable Mention - The NL actually has a couple of good candidates. After a red-hot start, Trevor Story has cooled off considerably (.674 slugging in April with 10 home runs, .455 slugging in May with 4 home runs), while Aledyms Diaz has hit very well for the Cardinals (good year for young shortstops), but I'll give this to Steven Matz, who so far has been the second best starter in the lauded Mets' rotation, going 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. That's all for this point. I may start doing some links posts, but there are too many in the last two months to really catch up with, so I'll find some of the best ones, and some more going forward. If you're looking for good reading, Fangraphs, Beyond the Box Score, SB Nation, the newly opened Ringer, Joe Posnanski's blog, Jonah Keri on CBS and Sports Illustrated, and Keith Law's blog and Insider Articles are all good spots.
2 Comments
joel jackson
6/1/2016 01:23:08 pm
Okay sure let's talk about least valuable player and not even mention former Giant and current giant Pablo Sandobeltexplosion.
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Greg
6/1/2016 01:44:16 pm
He was a worthy winner last year. But he hasn't hurt his team much because he's only had 7 plate appearances in 3 games this year. That and he has 1 fewer year and $43 fewer million left on his contract than the Prince.
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Greg JacksonA baseball fan in general. Interested in statistics and analytics. Usually follow the Giants and Blue Jays, fan of all MLB in general. |